<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">U.S. shippers expect volume growth through their supply chains over the coming year to be less than previously forecast, but they are ready to fork over far more money to ship freight as rates for nearly all modes rise.</div>

U.S. shippers expect volume growth through their supply chains over the coming year to be less than previously forecast, but they are ready to fork over far more money to ship freight as rates for nearly all modes rise.

<div><div><img></div>U.S. shippers expect volume growth through their supply chains over the coming year to be less than previously forecast, but they are ready to fork over far more money to ship freight as rates for nearly all modes rise.Shippers surveyed by Wolfe Research in August and September said they expect volumes on average to rise 2.8 percent over the next 12 months, a deceleration from the 3 percent to 4 percent gains they expected in the last three quarters. The acceleration of U.S. imports through the U.S. West Coast before the International Longshore and Warehouse Union <a>contract expired July 1</a>...

U.S. shippers expect volume growth through their supply chains over the coming year to be less than previously forecast, but they are ready to fork over far more money to ship freight as rates for nearly all modes rise. Shippers surveyed by Wolfe Research in August and September said they expect volumes on average to rise 2.8 percent over the next 12 months, a deceleration from the 3 percent to 4 percent gains they expected in the last three quarters. The acceleration of U.S. imports through the U.S. West Coast before the International Longshore and Warehouse Union contract expired July 1 could have taken some of the thrust out of shippers’ future restocking plans. Tougher year-over-year comparisons also likely played a part in shippers’ tempered expectations for freight growth. About 35 percent of shippers said their current inventory levels are higher than a year ago, compared to 47 percent of those surveyed who said the same last quarter. Thirty-eight percent of those surveyed said inventory levels were flat, while only 28 percent said their stocks were down from last year. Surveyed shippers expect truckload and intermodal volume to see the healthiest growth among all transport modes, with executives planning to put 4 percent more freight on intermodal trains and trucks hauling full loads. Executives at shippers expect railcar, ocean shipping and other domestic ground volume to rise 3 to 4 percent over the next 12 months. Shippers continue to expect intermodal freight growth despite a decreases in service, resulting mainly from cargo backlogged during the winter and uptick in total traffic, Wolfe Research noted. Trucking companies’ difficulty hiring and keep qualified drivers, coupled with rising demand, is pushing up rates. More than 85 percent of surveyed shippers said truckload capacity is tight, and 70 percent of the executives expect capacity to tighten further over the next 12 months, according to Wolfe Research. “As a result, shippers in our survey are being forced to increasingly use brokers to find capacity,” according to the report. Even though shippers expect peak season growth, many are planning to pay surcharges for truckload services during the period. Forty-two percent of shippers expect peak season volume to be flat, while slightly less than half of those surveyed expects less than 5 percent increase. Only 6 percent of those shippers surveyed expect peak season volume to rise more than 5 percent year-over-year. Judging by shippers across the board expectations, Wolfe Research forecast peak season volume will rise 1.6 percent year-over-year. While peak season isn’t slated to be robust, 52 percent of surveyed shippers plan to pay peak surcharges to move their truckload freight, and 37 percent of them plan to do the same for ocean freight. “Typically we don’t hear about peak season surcharges for truckload, but we assume this means shippers expect to pay extra for surge capacity this year,” the report said. While surveyed shippers have more moderate freight growth expectations for the next 12 months, their expectations on how much it will cost to move the freight is at the highest point in three of years. The roughly 600 shippers with a total transportation budget of more than $10 billion forecast their shipping rates, excluding fuel surcharges, will rise 3.7 percent over the next 12 months. The surveyed shippers told Wolfe Research, a New York-based investment research firm, in the second quarter they expected a 2 percent on average gain in pricing, and shippers were bracing for a 2.6 percent rate rise a year ago. Expectations of higher rates for all transportation modes, except domestic air transport, are driving shippers to increase their transportation budgets. Shippers said they saw the sharpest pricing increases during the second quarter in truckload services, with rates rising on average 3.9 percent. “Expectations for truckload rate increases are now the highest amongst all modes at 3.4 percent after 14 quarters where expectations for (railcar) rate increases outpaced that of truckload rates,” Wolfe Research said in the report. “This is also the highest expectations for (truckload) rate increases since the first half of 2011.” Wolfe Research added that shippers’ expectations for railcar rate pricing (3.1 percent) was the highest in five quarters, “as the railroads are dealing with capacity constraints into recent strong volume growth.” U.S. railcar volume is up 3.5 percent this year through September, according to the Association of American Railroads. Contact Mark Szakonyi at mszakonyi@joc.com and follow him on Twitter: @szakonyi_joc .

Air Cargo

Container lines

Truckload

US shippers temper volume growth but see higher rates

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The latest Global Port Tracker demonstrates the uncertainty that has overtaken global supply chains since the White House’s announcement on tariffs a week ago. </div>

The latest Global Port Tracker demonstrates the uncertainty that has overtaken global supply chains since the White House’s announcement on tariffs a week ago.

Feature image

<div class="phx-topic">US retailers on Wednesday significantly downgraded import projections for the second quarter in the aftermath of widespread global tariffs implemented by the Trump administration, saying cargo landing at the country’s ports in May and June will be down more than 20% from a forecast made just last month. The latest Global Port Tracker (GPT), published monthly by Hackett Associates and the National Retail Federation (NRF), demonstrates <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/new-us-tariffs-forcing-shippers-to-recalculate-supply-chains-on-the-fly-5976471">the uncertainty that has overtaken global supply chains</a> since the White House’s announcement on tariffs a week ago. “In this environment of complete uncertainty, our forecast for import cargo will be subject to significant adjustments over the coming months,” Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates, said in the GPT “At present, we expect to see imports begin to decline by May and that they will drop dramatically during the remainder of the year.” The new GPT calls for May US imports of 1.66 million TEUs – down 22.4% from March’s forecast and 20.1% lower than actual volumes from May 2024. If the May reductions come to fruition, it would represent the first year-over-year US import drop for any month since September 2023. Retailers are now forecasting imports of 1.57 million TEUs for June, down more than 24% compared to the March GPT. Meanwhile, July import expectations were lowered by 15% to 1.69 million TEUs. Both months are positioned to see import volumes shrink by almost 27% year on year. <h3>Import declines stretch to start of peak season </h3>In its first forecast for August, the GPT projects imports of 1.7 million TEUs for the month, which would be 26.7% lower than actual volumes from 2024. “Retailers have been bringing merchandise into the country for months in attempts to mitigate against rising tariffs, but that opportunity has come to an end with the imposition of the ‘reciprocal’ tariffs,” Jonathan Gold, NRF’s vice president for supply chain and customs policy, said in the GPT. “Retailers are expected to pull back and rely on built-up inventories, at least long enough to see what will happen next.” Even before the projected slowdown in imports, retail inventory growth has waned in the past year. The ratio of US retail inventories to sales, a barometer of inventory balance, edged up in January to 1.32 from 1.3 in December, according to US Census Bureau data. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="d87b54a4-01d0-4f80-9faf-0230de37cf46"></dynamic-object></div>April imports are projected at 2.08 million TEUs, almost 3% higher than last year but 2.3% below the forecast made in March. Preliminary March import data from the NRF shows that US ports handled 2.14 million TEUs, up 10.8% from March 2024 and aligning with forecasts made in the last month’s GPT. The updated forecast brings the first-half projection for US imports to 11.73 million TEUs, down 8.2% from expectations made prior to the Trump tariffs announcement and nearly 3% lower than actual H1 2024 volumes. The GPT is published monthly using import data collected from 13 ports on the US East, West and Gulf coasts. Contact Laura Robb at <a href="mailto:Laura.Robb@spglobal.com">Laura.Robb@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

US retailers on Wednesday significantly downgraded import projections for the second quarter in the aftermath of widespread global tariffs implemented by the Trump administration, saying cargo landing at the country’s ports in May and June will be down more than 20% from a forecast made just last month. The latest Global Port Tracker (GPT), published monthly by Hackett Associates and the National Retail Federation (NRF), demonstrates the uncertainty that has overtaken global supply chains since the White House’s announcement on tariffs a week ago. “In this environment of complete uncertainty, our forecast for import cargo will be subject to significant adjustments over the coming months,” Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates, said in the GPT “At present, we expect to see imports begin to decline by May and that they will drop dramatically during the remainder of the year.” The new GPT calls for May US imports of 1.66 million TEUs – down 22.4% from March’s forecast and 20.1% lower than actual volumes from May 2024. If the May reductions come to fruition, it would represent the first year-over-year US import drop for any month since September 2023. Retailers are now forecasting imports of 1.57 million TEUs for June, down more than 24% compared to the March GPT. Meanwhile, July import expectations were lowered by 15% to 1.69 million TEUs. Both months are positioned to see import volumes shrink by almost 27% year on year. Import declines stretch to start of peak season In its first forecast for August, the GPT projects imports of 1.7 million TEUs for the month, which would be 26.7% lower than actual volumes from 2024. “Retailers have been bringing merchandise into the country for months in attempts to mitigate against rising tariffs, but that opportunity has come to an end with the imposition of the ‘reciprocal’ tariffs,” Jonathan Gold, NRF’s vice president for supply chain and customs policy, said in the GPT. “Retailers are expected to pull back and rely on built-up inventories, at least long enough to see what will happen next.” Even before the projected slowdown in imports, retail inventory growth has waned in the past year. The ratio of US retail inventories to sales, a barometer of inventory balance, edged up in January to 1.32 from 1.3 in December, according to US Census Bureau data. April imports are projected at 2.08 million TEUs, almost 3% higher than last year but 2.3% below the forecast made in March. Preliminary March import data from the NRF shows that US ports handled 2.14 million TEUs, up 10.8% from March 2024 and aligning with forecasts made in the last month’s GPT. The updated forecast brings the first-half projection for US imports to 11.73 million TEUs, down 8.2% from expectations made prior to the Trump tariffs announcement and nearly 3% lower than actual H1 2024 volumes. The GPT is published monthly using import data collected from 13 ports on the US East, West and Gulf coasts. Contact Laura Robb at Laura.Robb@spglobal.com . 

Maritime

Trans-Atlantic

Forwarding

Trans-Pacific

Container Shipping News

US retailers issue big downgrade in import forecast amid expected tariff pullback

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The expansion of the semi-submersible and deck carrier fleet comes amid a forecast rebound in offshore markets, with $46 billion worth of oil and gas EPC contracts anticipated this year and $52 billion in 2026. </div>

The expansion of the semi-submersible and deck carrier fleet comes amid a forecast rebound in offshore markets, with $46 billion worth of oil and gas EPC contracts anticipated this year and $52 billion in 2026.

<div class="phx-topic">Two Asia-headquartered heavy-lift operators are expanding their semi-submersible deck and module carrier fleets with new vessel orders as they anticipate a rejuvenation of the global offshore energy sector starting this year.China’s Cosco Shipping Specialized Carriers awarded a $142 million order to Guangzhou Shipyard International for a 70,000-deadweight metric ton (dwt) semi-submersible heavy-lift vessel for delivery in May 2027. That came as NYK Bulk &amp; Projects Carriers, a subsidiary of NYK Line, placed an order for a 33,000-dwt deck carrier at Chinese shipbuilder Dalian Shipbuilding Industry Co. (DSIC) with delivery scheduled for 2027 — the company’s first shipbuilding contract with DSIC. Commenting on the NYK deal, Daisuke Takahashi, manager at NYK Bulk &amp; Project Carriers, told the Journal of Commerce that only limited information was available. The vessel has been designed by Shanghai Merchant Ship Design and Research Institute (SDARI).The ship will join NYK’s two heavy deck carriers, the 19,812-dwt Yamatai and Yamato, both built in 2010 and fitted with a hull air lubrication system that has resulted in fuel savings of between 3% and 5%, Takahashi said.The new vessel will trade globally. “We go where the projects and opportunities are,” he added.Cosco Shipping Specialized Carriers already owns the world’s largest fleet of semi-submersible deck vessels with 18 ships ranging in size from 20,000 dwt to 98,000 dwt, including two of the world’s biggest semi-submersible vessels. The new vessel will trade globally and support Cosco’s further expansion into the semi-submersible transport of heavy structures including drilling rigs and offshore structures.Semi-submersible vessels and module carriers have large, strengthened, unobstructed decks allowing them to carry extremely large, heavy or awkwardly-sized project cargoes such as wind turbines, industrial structures and oil and gas modules.Semi-submersibles can ballast down the deck and allow heavy cargoes to be floated into position, while module carriers can transport roll-on/roll-off cargoes.<h3>Energy-related spending forecast to rise </h3>Highlighting the rebound in offshore markets, Westwood Global Energy Group estimated that about $46 billion worth of offshore oil and gas-related engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contracts will be awarded this year, including 90 drilling and production platforms. That will increase to $52 billion worth of EPC contracts next year, the energy consultancy said in a March report.While that is down from approximately $55 billion worth of awards last year, it matches the $46 billion awarded in 2023.Westwood also forecast a recovery in the offshore wind energy sector with “record amounts of capacity that could reach final investment decision” status this year after the last several years of projects being delayed due to cost and government policy issues.Contact Keith Wallis at <a href="mailto:keithwallis@hotmail.com">keithwallis@hotmail.com</a>.</div>

Two Asia-headquartered heavy-lift operators are expanding their semi-submersible deck and module carrier fleets with new vessel orders as they anticipate a rejuvenation of the global offshore energy sector starting this year. China’s Cosco Shipping Specialized Carriers awarded a $142 million order to Guangzhou Shipyard International for a 70,000-deadweight metric ton (dwt) semi-submersible heavy-lift vessel for delivery in May 2027. That came as NYK Bulk & Projects Carriers, a subsidiary of NYK Line, placed an order for a 33,000-dwt deck carrier at Chinese shipbuilder Dalian Shipbuilding Industry Co. (DSIC) with delivery scheduled for 2027 — the company’s first shipbuilding contract with DSIC. Commenting on the NYK deal, Daisuke Takahashi, manager at NYK Bulk & Project Carriers, told the Journal of Commerce that only limited information was available. The vessel has been designed by Shanghai Merchant Ship Design and Research Institute (SDARI). The ship will join NYK’s two heavy deck carriers, the 19,812-dwt Yamatai and Yamato, both built in 2010 and fitted with a hull air lubrication system that has resulted in fuel savings of between 3% and 5%, Takahashi said. The new vessel will trade globally. “We go where the projects and opportunities are,” he added. Cosco Shipping Specialized Carriers already owns the world’s largest fleet of semi-submersible deck vessels with 18 ships ranging in size from 20,000 dwt to 98,000 dwt, including two of the world’s biggest semi-submersible vessels. The new vessel will trade globally and support Cosco’s further expansion into the semi-submersible transport of heavy structures including drilling rigs and offshore structures. Semi-submersible vessels and module carriers have large, strengthened, unobstructed decks allowing them to carry extremely large, heavy or awkwardly-sized project cargoes such as wind turbines, industrial structures and oil and gas modules. Semi-submersibles can ballast down the deck and allow heavy cargoes to be floated into position, while module carriers can transport roll-on/roll-off cargoes. Energy-related spending forecast to rise Highlighting the rebound in offshore markets, Westwood Global Energy Group estimated that about $46 billion worth of offshore oil and gas-related engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contracts will be awarded this year, including 90 drilling and production platforms. That will increase to $52 billion worth of EPC contracts next year, the energy consultancy said in a March report. While that is down from approximately $55 billion worth of awards last year, it matches the $46 billion awarded in 2023. Westwood also forecast a recovery in the offshore wind energy sector with “record amounts of capacity that could reach final investment decision” status this year after the last several years of projects being delayed due to cost and government policy issues. Contact Keith Wallis at keithwallis@hotmail.com .

Breakbulk carriers

Project cargo

Breakbulk News

Heavy-lift ship orders demonstrate expectations for offshore energy growth

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Member states voiced determination to continue work this week on essential decarbonization measures despite a strongly worded missive from Washington urging governments to reconsider their support for emissions-cutting regulations.</div>

Member states voiced determination to continue work this week on essential decarbonization measures despite a strongly worded missive from Washington urging governments to reconsider their support for emissions-cutting regulations.

<div class="phx-topic">Crucial shipping decarbonization talks underway this week at the International Maritime Organization (IMO) in London will continue without US participation and against the backdrop of Washington’s threat to retaliate against any member states that impose carbon levies on US ships. In an extraordinary attack on the process taking place at the IMO’s Marine Environment Protection Committee (MEPC) meeting, the US delegation announced Wednesday it was withdrawing from the talks via a statement sent to all London and Washington-based embassies of IMO member states. The statement urged governments of IMO members to reconsider support for the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions measures that are under consideration at the closely-watched MEPC meeting. “We must be clear the US rejects any and all efforts to impose economic measures against its ships based on GHG emissions or fuel choice,” the statement said, adding for that reason the US was not engaging in negotiations at the London meeting. The US also threatened member states agreeing to “such blatantly unfair measures” with “reciprocal measures so as to offset any fees charged to US ships and compensate the American people for any other economic harm from any adopted GHG emissions measures.” While the US delegation’s dramatic move to exit MEPC has disrupted the negotiations, the IMO insisted it will not derail the talks meant to set a fuel intensity standard and a pricing mechanism on carbon emissions. “MEPC discussions are ongoing as scheduled,” an IMO spokesperson told the Journal of Commerce Wednesday. “The working group on GHG emissions from ships will report back to the plenary session on Friday with a view to the committee’s approval of the draft text.” <h3>Clock ticking on agreement timeline </h3>The MEPC meeting is being held primarily to design a GHG fuel intensity regulation and settle on a pricing measure for carbon emissions from shipping, which produces 3% of the world’s output. Agreement on the legal text and framework must be decided by the end of this week or the planned implementation by October could be at risk. Years of intense negotiations and compromises have gone into the efforts of IMO members to reach this point, with the shipping industry on the cusp of having the first global agreement on a fuel standard and carbon pricing mechanism. Both measures are regarded as essential to support the development and scale-up of a new generation of carbon-free marine fuels, which remain significantly more expensive than traditional fossil fuels. But with the arrival of President Donald Trump in the White House this year, the US position on climate-related global conventions, much like its trade policy, has shifted. The US is in the process of withdrawing from the Paris Agreement climate change accord as part of a broader initiative to “review for rescission all regulations that impose undue burdens on energy production and use.” “The IMO’s effort to achieve absolute greenhouse gas emission reduction targets for international shipping include net-zero emissions by around 2050 [that] would unwisely promote the use of hypothetical expensive and unproven fuels at the expense of existing and proven technologies that fuel global shipping fleets,” the US said in Wednesday’s statement. “These measures would impose substantial economic burdens on the sector and drive inflation globally,” it added. “The UN should halt all efforts to proliferate the deeply unfair agenda reflected in the Paris Agreement in other fora.” <h3>Renewed focus on reaching consensus </h3>While the US seats remained empty in the MEPC chamber Wednesday, the mood at the London meeting was one of resolve to finish a process started in 2018 with the adoption of the IMO GHG Strategy that outlined the pathway to shipping decarbonization. Albon Ishoda, special presidential envoy for shipping decarbonization from the Marshall Islands, was determined not to allow the US withdrawal to derail progress toward reaching consensus on midterm GHG measures. “The IMO, including the US, have agreed [to] decarbonization targets,” Ishoda told the Journal of Commerce Wednesday. “We are here in London to agree on how we meet those targets. In this time of instability in the markets, a clear direction from this IMO meeting is needed more than ever.” He noted that the US is just one of 176 IMO member states. “While their impact on this process is considerable, we cannot afford to let a squall from one nation blow all of us off course,” Ishoda said. “We are going to continue negotiating with those that are prepared to talk.” A European Commission spokesperson declined to comment on the US withdrawal from the MEPC meeting, but told the Journal of Commerce the focus of their delegation “was now on the negotiations.” Another delegate pointed out that even with the US withdrawal, it remained a signatory to the International Convention for the Prevention of Pollution from Ships (Marpol). Once consensus is achieved on the midterm measures, they will be incorporated into the Marpol regulations. “By not participating, the US is missing out an opportunity to contribute to the discussions,” the delegate said. “Politics do not affect the science and the climate impact from shipping that needs to be addressed this week.” Contact Greg Knowler at <a href="mailto:greg.knowler@spglobal.com">greg.knowler@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

Crucial shipping decarbonization talks underway this week at the International Maritime Organization (IMO) in London will continue without US participation and against the backdrop of Washington’s threat to retaliate against any member states that impose carbon levies on US ships. In an extraordinary attack on the process taking place at the IMO’s Marine Environment Protection Committee (MEPC) meeting, the US delegation announced Wednesday it was withdrawing from the talks via a statement sent to all London and Washington-based embassies of IMO member states. The statement urged governments of IMO members to reconsider support for the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions measures that are under consideration at the closely-watched MEPC meeting. “We must be clear the US rejects any and all efforts to impose economic measures against its ships based on GHG emissions or fuel choice,” the statement said, adding for that reason the US was not engaging in negotiations at the London meeting. The US also threatened member states agreeing to “such blatantly unfair measures” with “reciprocal measures so as to offset any fees charged to US ships and compensate the American people for any other economic harm from any adopted GHG emissions measures.” While the US delegation’s dramatic move to exit MEPC has disrupted the negotiations, the IMO insisted it will not derail the talks meant to set a fuel intensity standard and a pricing mechanism on carbon emissions. “MEPC discussions are ongoing as scheduled,” an IMO spokesperson told the Journal of Commerce Wednesday. “The working group on GHG emissions from ships will report back to the plenary session on Friday with a view to the committee’s approval of the draft text.” Clock ticking on agreement timeline The MEPC meeting is being held primarily to design a GHG fuel intensity regulation and settle on a pricing measure for carbon emissions from shipping, which produces 3% of the world’s output. Agreement on the legal text and framework must be decided by the end of this week or the planned implementation by October could be at risk. Years of intense negotiations and compromises have gone into the efforts of IMO members to reach this point, with the shipping industry on the cusp of having the first global agreement on a fuel standard and carbon pricing mechanism. Both measures are regarded as essential to support the development and scale-up of a new generation of carbon-free marine fuels, which remain significantly more expensive than traditional fossil fuels. But with the arrival of President Donald Trump in the White House this year, the US position on climate-related global conventions, much like its trade policy, has shifted. The US is in the process of withdrawing from the Paris Agreement climate change accord as part of a broader initiative to “review for rescission all regulations that impose undue burdens on energy production and use.” “The IMO’s effort to achieve absolute greenhouse gas emission reduction targets for international shipping include net-zero emissions by around 2050 [that] would unwisely promote the use of hypothetical expensive and unproven fuels at the expense of existing and proven technologies that fuel global shipping fleets,” the US said in Wednesday’s statement. “These measures would impose substantial economic burdens on the sector and drive inflation globally,” it added. “The UN should halt all efforts to proliferate the deeply unfair agenda reflected in the Paris Agreement in other fora.” Renewed focus on reaching consensus While the US seats remained empty in the MEPC chamber Wednesday, the mood at the London meeting was one of resolve to finish a process started in 2018 with the adoption of the IMO GHG Strategy that outlined the pathway to shipping decarbonization. Albon Ishoda, special presidential envoy for shipping decarbonization from the Marshall Islands, was determined not to allow the US withdrawal to derail progress toward reaching consensus on midterm GHG measures. “The IMO, including the US, have agreed [to] decarbonization targets,” Ishoda told the Journal of Commerce Wednesday. “We are here in London to agree on how we meet those targets. In this time of instability in the markets, a clear direction from this IMO meeting is needed more than ever.” He noted that the US is just one of 176 IMO member states. “While their impact on this process is considerable, we cannot afford to let a squall from one nation blow all of us off course,” Ishoda said. “We are going to continue negotiating with those that are prepared to talk.” A European Commission spokesperson declined to comment on the US withdrawal from the MEPC meeting, but told the Journal of Commerce the focus of their delegation “was now on the negotiations.” Another delegate pointed out that even with the US withdrawal, it remained a signatory to the International Convention for the Prevention of Pollution from Ships (Marpol). Once consensus is achieved on the midterm measures, they will be incorporated into the Marpol regulations. “By not participating, the US is missing out an opportunity to contribute to the discussions,” the delegate said. “Politics do not affect the science and the climate impact from shipping that needs to be addressed this week.” Contact Greg Knowler at greg.knowler@spglobal.com .

Transport, Trade and Regulation News

US pulls out of IMO climate talks, threatens retaliation for emissions fees

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The ad hoc call was a precursor to the Gemini Cooperation carriers preparing to position two regular services out of the Colombo West International Terminal beginning next month, sources in Colombo told the Journal of Commerce.</div>

The ad hoc call was a precursor to the Gemini Cooperation carriers preparing to position two regular services out of the Colombo West International Terminal beginning next month, sources in Colombo told the Journal of Commerce.

<div class="phx-topic">Colombo West International Terminal (CWIT), a fifth container-handler at Sri Lanka’s Colombo Port that holds significant transshipment stakes in South Asia, has opened for business, adding more capacity into the market as volumes slow across trades. The project is owned 51% by Indian port conglomerate Adani Ports (APSEZ), involving a total $800 million investment in two phases in return for 35-year concession rights. The consortium includes Colombo-based John Keells Holdings (34%) and the Sri Lanka Ports Authority (15%). An April 5 call from the Maersk Salalah marked the launch of CWIT’s Phase I operations, featuring a 600-meter quay, a draft of 18 meters and an annual capacity of 1.6 million TEUs. The ad hoc call was a precursor to the Gemini Cooperation liners preparing to position two regular services out of CWIT from next month, sources in Colombo told the Journal of Commerce. CWIT’s capacity will double to 3.2 million TEUs on a 1,400-meter wharf and a 20-meter draft when fully built out, which is targeted for the end of 2026 or early 2027. “It is the first deepwater terminal in Colombo to be fully automated, designed to enhance cargo handling capabilities, improve vessel turnaround times and elevate the port’s status as a key transshipment hub in South Asia,” APSEZ said in a statement. For Adani, the Colombo project presents a potential opportunity to create considerable synergistic advantages in regional trade operations due to its expansive port network in India, which includes the newest Vizhinjam terminal. APSEZ now commands nearly 50% of Indian containerized trade, racking up 11.6 million TEUs out of a total 24.1 million TEUs reported nationally for fiscal year 2024–25, data shows. “The commencement of operations at CWIT marks a momentous milestone in regional cooperation between India and Sri Lanka,” said group Chairman Gautam Adani. “Delivering this world-class facility in record time also reflects the Adani Group’s proven ability to efficiently execute large-scale critical infrastructure projects anywhere in the world.” Colombo saw 647,000 TEUs in March, with transshipment loads pegged at 531,000 TEUs, data shows. Contact Bency Mathew at <a href="mailto:bencyvmathew@gmail.com">bencyvmathew@gmail.com</a>.</div>

Colombo West International Terminal (CWIT), a fifth container-handler at Sri Lanka’s Colombo Port that holds significant transshipment stakes in South Asia, has opened for business, adding more capacity into the market as volumes slow across trades. The project is owned 51% by Indian port conglomerate Adani Ports (APSEZ), involving a total $800 million investment in two phases in return for 35-year concession rights. The consortium includes Colombo-based John Keells Holdings (34%) and the Sri Lanka Ports Authority (15%). An April 5 call from the Maersk Salalah marked the launch of CWIT’s Phase I operations, featuring a 600-meter quay, a draft of 18 meters and an annual capacity of 1.6 million TEUs. The ad hoc call was a precursor to the Gemini Cooperation liners preparing to position two regular services out of CWIT from next month, sources in Colombo told the Journal of Commerce. CWIT’s capacity will double to 3.2 million TEUs on a 1,400-meter wharf and a 20-meter draft when fully built out, which is targeted for the end of 2026 or early 2027. “It is the first deepwater terminal in Colombo to be fully automated, designed to enhance cargo handling capabilities, improve vessel turnaround times and elevate the port’s status as a key transshipment hub in South Asia,” APSEZ said in a statement. For Adani, the Colombo project presents a potential opportunity to create considerable synergistic advantages in regional trade operations due to its expansive port network in India, which includes the newest Vizhinjam terminal. APSEZ now commands nearly 50% of Indian containerized trade, racking up 11.6 million TEUs out of a total 24.1 million TEUs reported nationally for fiscal year 2024–25, data shows. “The commencement of operations at CWIT marks a momentous milestone in regional cooperation between India and Sri Lanka,” said group Chairman Gautam Adani. “Delivering this world-class facility in record time also reflects the Adani Group’s proven ability to efficiently execute large-scale critical infrastructure projects anywhere in the world.” Colombo saw 647,000 TEUs in March, with transshipment loads pegged at 531,000 TEUs, data shows. Contact Bency Mathew at bencyvmathew@gmail.com .

Port News

International ports

Adani opens Colombo’s fifth box terminal with Maersk trial call for Gemini

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">AFS Logistics and TD Cowen are forecasting a decline in truckload pricing and moderation in the LTL market as shippers and carriers alike navigate a new trade reality. </div>

AFS Logistics and TD Cowen are forecasting a decline in truckload pricing and moderation in the LTL market as shippers and carriers alike navigate a new trade reality.

<div class="phx-topic">Expectations that the domestic truckload market would turn upward by mid- or even late 2025 are fading as US tariffs rattle freight markets. After an uptick in the first quarter, truckload pricing is returning to depressed levels close to the bottom it first struck in 2023, third-party logistics provider AFS Logistics said Tuesday in its second-quarter TD Cowen/AFS Freight Index Forecast. AFS Logistics and investment bank TD Cowen said they expect truckload rates to decline in the second quarter, with their truckload index dropping from a reading of 5.9% to 5.5%. The index readings are pegged to a January 2018 pricing baseline. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="6d055963-a301-4117-b5ff-7895aa6979b1"></dynamic-object></div>The main contributing factor in the projected decline is the economic uncertainty resulting from President Donald Trump’s trade policy. Although US importers dodged higher costs when Trump held back on expanding the existing 25% tariffs on <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/disrupted-cross-border-freight-shipping-braces-for-us-tariffs-5974787">Mexican and Canadian goods</a>, they are still paying duties on half of Mexican imports and 62% of goods shipped from Canada. So-called reciprocal tariffs targeting most other nations are scheduled to be imposed Wednesday. And tariffs on steel, aluminum and automotive products are already in place. A weakening macroeconomic outlook combined with tariffs is “a recipe for uncertainty,” AFS Logistics CEO Andy Dyer said in a statement. “These conditions do not indicate a shift away from the malaise of soft demand that has shaped domestic transportation markets for quite some time,” Dyer said. <h3>Spot market uptick </h3>There are some signs of life in the truckload spot market, but they may be attributed to a pre-tariff rush of freight from ports as well as Canada and Mexico. However, there could also be early signs of a seasonal spring uptick in freight demand and spot pricing. Dry-van linehaul spot rates increased by just over 2 cents per mile last week, according to DAT Freight &amp; Analytics. At $1.66 per mile, excluding fuel surcharges, DAT’s seven-day rolling average US spot rate was 8 cents per mile higher than a year ago. Broker-posted spot rates in load board operator Truckstop’s system rose for all equipment types for a second straight week in the week that ended April 4. Dry-van spot rates rose 2.7% from the previous week to $1.94 per mile and were up 1.2% year over year. Increases in <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/pre-tariff-imports-seen-driving-us-flatbed-spot-demand-higher-5973654">flatbed spot rates</a> continued in both the DAT and Truckstop networks, but those increases have been tied at least in part to a pre-tariff pull-forward of freight. Longer-term measuring sticks such as the TD Cowen/AFS Logistics forecast and the US long-distance truckload producer price index (PPI), which include both contract and spot market rates, don’t point to higher truckload pricing — at least not yet. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="584ff364-6345-48cf-81f9-11883d8b58ce"></dynamic-object></div>The TD Cowen/AFS Logistics forecast reported that the truckload linehaul cost per shipment dropped 1.5% quarter to quarter in the first three months of 2025, its ninth consecutive quarterly decline. The shipper-paid, all-inclusive spot rates tracked monthly by the Journal of Commerce have dropped 19 cents since January, falling 13 cents in February and 6 cents in March to $2.18 per mile, flat with the year-ago average. <h3>LTL carriers tighten focus </h3>In the much more consolidated less-than-truckload (LTL) market, carriers are working <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/us-ltl-getting-in-position-for-higher-freight-demand-when-it-comes-5968547">to keep the rate increases</a> they’ve gained since Yellow, once one of the largest LTL providers, collapsed in 2023. “For now, LTL carriers are effectively navigating a low-demand environment with a focus on profitable lanes, contractual relationships and reliable freight, rather than chasing volume with pricing concessions,” Aaron LaGanke, AFS vice president of freight services, said in the statement. Even so, AFS Logistics expects its LTL freight index to decline from 63.8% in the first quarter to 63.4% this quarter — still up 0.7% from a year ago. “Truckload typically feels the impact of macroeconomic forces and trade policy first, then LTL has more of a delayed reaction,” LaGanke said. The US long-distance LTL PPI in February reached the peak it last hit in June 2022, rising 6.1% year over year. The LTL PPI is up 6.6% from December. In its forecast, AFS Logistics noted that annual rate increases and higher fuel surcharges kept upward pressure on LTL shipping costs in the first quarter, with the average carrier fuel surcharge rising 1.8% from the fourth quarter.Contact William B. Cassidy at <a href="mailto:bill.cassidy@spglobal.com">bill.cassidy@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

Expectations that the domestic truckload market would turn upward by mid- or even late 2025 are fading as US tariffs rattle freight markets. After an uptick in the first quarter, truckload pricing is returning to depressed levels close to the bottom it first struck in 2023, third-party logistics provider AFS Logistics said Tuesday in its second-quarter TD Cowen/AFS Freight Index Forecast. AFS Logistics and investment bank TD Cowen said they expect truckload rates to decline in the second quarter, with their truckload index dropping from a reading of 5.9% to 5.5%. The index readings are pegged to a January 2018 pricing baseline. The main contributing factor in the projected decline is the economic uncertainty resulting from President Donald Trump’s trade policy. Although US importers dodged higher costs when Trump held back on expanding the existing 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods , they are still paying duties on half of Mexican imports and 62% of goods shipped from Canada. So-called reciprocal tariffs targeting most other nations are scheduled to be imposed Wednesday. And tariffs on steel, aluminum and automotive products are already in place. A weakening macroeconomic outlook combined with tariffs is “a recipe for uncertainty,” AFS Logistics CEO Andy Dyer said in a statement. “These conditions do not indicate a shift away from the malaise of soft demand that has shaped domestic transportation markets for quite some time,” Dyer said. Spot market uptick There are some signs of life in the truckload spot market, but they may be attributed to a pre-tariff rush of freight from ports as well as Canada and Mexico. However, there could also be early signs of a seasonal spring uptick in freight demand and spot pricing. Dry-van linehaul spot rates increased by just over 2 cents per mile last week, according to DAT Freight & Analytics. At $1.66 per mile, excluding fuel surcharges, DAT’s seven-day rolling average US spot rate was 8 cents per mile higher than a year ago. Broker-posted spot rates in load board operator Truckstop’s system rose for all equipment types for a second straight week in the week that ended April 4. Dry-van spot rates rose 2.7% from the previous week to $1.94 per mile and were up 1.2% year over year. Increases in flatbed spot rates continued in both the DAT and Truckstop networks, but those increases have been tied at least in part to a pre-tariff pull-forward of freight. Longer-term measuring sticks such as the TD Cowen/AFS Logistics forecast and the US long-distance truckload producer price index (PPI), which include both contract and spot market rates, don’t point to higher truckload pricing — at least not yet. The TD Cowen/AFS Logistics forecast reported that the truckload linehaul cost per shipment dropped 1.5% quarter to quarter in the first three months of 2025, its ninth consecutive quarterly decline. The shipper-paid, all-inclusive spot rates tracked monthly by the Journal of Commerce have dropped 19 cents since January, falling 13 cents in February and 6 cents in March to $2.18 per mile, flat with the year-ago average. LTL carriers tighten focus In the much more consolidated less-than-truckload (LTL) market, carriers are working to keep the rate increases they’ve gained since Yellow, once one of the largest LTL providers, collapsed in 2023. “For now, LTL carriers are effectively navigating a low-demand environment with a focus on profitable lanes, contractual relationships and reliable freight, rather than chasing volume with pricing concessions,” Aaron LaGanke, AFS vice president of freight services, said in the statement. Even so, AFS Logistics expects its LTL freight index to decline from 63.8% in the first quarter to 63.4% this quarter — still up 0.7% from a year ago. “Truckload typically feels the impact of macroeconomic forces and trade policy first, then LTL has more of a delayed reaction,” LaGanke said. The US long-distance LTL PPI in February reached the peak it last hit in June 2022, rising 6.1% year over year. The LTL PPI is up 6.6% from December. In its forecast, AFS Logistics noted that annual rate increases and higher fuel surcharges kept upward pressure on LTL shipping costs in the first quarter, with the average carrier fuel surcharge rising 1.8% from the fourth quarter. Contact William B. Cassidy at bill.cassidy@spglobal.com .

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The world of LTL is slow to embrace change. Business anachronisms permeate current supply chain processes. These vestiges of the way things used to work define the LTL freight transportation procurement process of many modern shippers.David Knuth, logistics specialist at IEWC, a global supplier of cable and wire based in Wisconsin, is happy to have modernized the RFP process, automating the entire LTL bidding procedure with Bid$ense, SMC³’s automated truckload and LTL freight transportation sourcing solution. But when prompted, he can still recall what once was.In his previous job, a large part of his duties were consumed by creating an intermodal bid package for carriers. In a spreadsheet, Knuth detailed the company’s volumes lane by lane, taking care to delete any errant keystrokes or misleading data. He would then email out the information to each carrier, taking time to respond to detailed technical questions about the spreadsheet data. Finally, he had to compile all the results, create an algorithm that would compare the carriers on each lane, and award the business.“It was a huge undertaking. It took about four months to do,” Knuth said of the old process. “It was almost a full-time job for that part of the year, every year.”In his new job at IEWC, he sat down with Bid$ense on day one and was amazed at the capabilities. Knuth had never before used a bid tool. SMC³’s latest versions of Bid$ense automate the process even further, taking truckload and LTL RFPs entirely online. The tool draws on RFP best-practices protocols to streamline the bidding communication process, enabling bidding carriers to respond accurately and promptly to shipper requests. The solution also does all the distribution work automatically, electronically submitting shipper bid data to carriers based on their actual service capabilities and performance records. Carriers are alerted with timely prompts for RFP deliverables, so shippers aren’t waiting by the phone for responses.Another benefit of automating the process is the data-cleansing assistance. When Knuth sent spreadsheets to carriers, data errors might cloud the bidding process; he might have to resend data or simply accept a price that did not truly reflect the costs of doing business. Data cleansing is incredibly beneficial, he said.The spreadsheet technique also made bidding analysis an onerous task. Since Bid$ense automates and streamlines the entire RFP process, intensive examination is now simple. SMC³ knows that each bid has more than one best outcome. With uniform responses from each carrier, shippers can quickly rank results and create an unlimited quantity of what-if scenarios to make the optimal procurement decision.Jesse Burnett of Central Garden &amp; Pet experiences many of the same benefits. Founded in 1980, Central Garden &amp; Pet has spent the last three decades growing from a small garden supply company to a provider of a range of products from dog chews and bird seed to soil supplements and natural insecticides. For much of its life, the company shipped these disparate goods via LTL and truckload carriers to retailers throughout the country, relying on each business unit to negotiate directly with their freight transportation providers. This arrangement worked fairly well for a small company, but as Central Garden &amp; Pet expanded, leadership decided to consolidate decision making.Burnett helped centralize the transportation decision making in 2015 with SMC³’s Bid$ense. Before Bid$ense, every business unit operated independently as far as negotiating with carriers.“There were a lot of different things just floating around,” he said. “We didn’t have master agreements in place; no national pricing at all. The pricing from carriers was just all over the place, depending on where you were.”The transformations he saw with Bid$ense were immediate. Burnett has been using the tool about every other year since its implementation at the company. Central Garden and Pet’s $19.6 million 2019 LTL bid saved the company just more than 9 percent when compared to its historical average. For Burnett, though, bid automation extends far beyond savings.“We knew that we weren’t getting the best pricing offer from our carriers just because nothing was centralized,” he continued. “We knew that if we combined everything from all these business units and paired it with one corporate offering, then it would drive some cost benefit with it.”When the company initially decided to centralize bid procurement, executives researched a number of different methodologies and technologies. In the end, though, Burnett found that Bid$ense was both widespread and well known, and that his carrier partners already knew how to use the application. Burnett also highlighted the data-cleansing process as a major benefit, saying the rigorous process ensures that carriers always return the best price.“It definitely has helped drive savings,” he said. “Any time you go out there and you drive that competitiveness with the carriers and they know they’re in a bid environment, it seems to sharpen their pencils.”Transportation procurement is an integral part of the modern supply chain. With Bid$ense, shippers can develop a strategic implementation plan that saves them time and money, but also helps them create strong relationships with their carrier partners. These carriers appreciate the solution’s data-cleansing process; when carriers receive a complete shipment history and future volume forecast, they don’t have to guess on pricing. Carriers that receive more data from shippers get a complete picture of that shipper’s freight, allowing them to accurately plan instead of simply preparing for the worst-case scenario. Clean data presented through an automated system can lead to both bigger shipment savings and a lasting partnership between carrier and customer.Whether customers are looking to streamline over-the-road transportation bidding by automating the RFP process or create an entirely new, centralized sourcing process, Bid$ense has the analytical horsepower to get the job done.SMC³ 2020 Customer Case Study

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Shippers save money, time with automated transportation bidding tools

If there’s one immutable truth in the world of logistics, it’s this: LTL is an inherently complex form of transportation. Tariffs, rates, DIM weights, transit times — it’s enough to confuse even seasoned logistics professionals. The solution to this knowledge gap has historically been on-the-job training or university supply chain education, but for a variety of reasons there is now a pressing need for third-party, remote LTL training that prepares logistics workers for transportation success. Global Scope Can Overlook Local Intricacies In the past, professionals looking to move into a supply chain career learned about the basics of supply chain from universities. However, many of these college supply chain programs are now global in scope, focusing on worldwide supply chain management instead of the intricacies of specialized domestic transportation. And even these programs, which used to be widespread, are becoming less common. LTL is not an industry of broad-brush strokes; supply chain professionals really need a pointillistic understanding of the logistics of LTL in order to excel in the industry. Accelerating Need for Dedicated LTL Education This lack of specified training put the onus on employers to prepare new hires with the LTL knowledge needed to do their jobs. Dedicated LTL study is a necessity, not a luxury. At the same time, changes in LTL and the broader supply chain world are accelerating. The reliance on e-commerce has ballooned since the start of the pandemic, and last-mile LTL shipments and related e-commerce strains on the supply chain won’t diminish once social distancing abates. That genie isn’t going back into the bottle. So supply chain employers need logistics workers that are fully versed in all aspects of the industry, ready to solve unique shipping and delivery problems based on their extensive supply chain knowledge But why care about LTL? It’s been reported that some shippers in today’s world are no longer concerned with what mode is used to ship their goods. A Multimodal Approach Ensures On-Time Delivery This mode agnosticism means supply chain stakeholders have to be well versed in all modes of transportation. As unforeseen weather events and other disruptions, such as protests, become more common, savvy logistics employees will need to be armed with familiarity of all modes, not just the most popular, to ensure that freight is delivered on time, without damage, and in the most financially expedient way possible. Offerings like SMC³’s LTL online education courses cover a wide range of topics from LTL basics and operations to more advanced concepts like pricing analytics and transportation law. The company also has plans to continually refresh content, adding new expert presenters and taking the feedback of students to make the courses even better as time goes on. Learn more about&nbsp;<a href="https://logisticstrainingcenter.com/smc3-courses/" rel="noreferrer" class="joc_admin__link">SMC³’s LTL Online Education program</a>&nbsp;and view the 2021 hybrid schedule, featuring live industry experts,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.smc3.com/onlinelearning2021/" rel="noreferrer" class="joc_admin__link">here.</a>

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