<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Forwarders are having to rebuild their air cargo logistics infrastructure to compensate for significant cuts in capacity as much of the passenger aircraft fleet will remain grounded through 2021.</div>

Forwarders are having to rebuild their air cargo logistics infrastructure to compensate for significant cuts in capacity as much of the passenger aircraft fleet will remain grounded through 2021.

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<div>A revolution in air cargo is under way as the supply chain is forced to reconfigure around the long-term removal of huge amounts of available capacity, placing smaller forwarders under pressure and increasing the chances of mergers and acquisitions in the sector, according to DB Schenker executive Thorsten Meincke.The board member for air and ocean freight at the German forwarder said the dependability of air cargo historically was based on 35 to 65 percent of total global freight being transported in the bellies of passenger aircraft that are no longer flying. “Every forwarder has needed to entirely rebuild their service...

A revolution in air cargo is under way as the supply chain is forced to reconfigure around the long-term removal of huge amounts of available capacity, placing smaller forwarders under pressure and increasing the chances of mergers and acquisitions in the sector, according to DB Schenker executive Thorsten Meincke. The board member for air and ocean freight at the German forwarder said the dependability of air cargo historically was based on 35 to 65 percent of total global freight being transported in the bellies of passenger aircraft that are no longer flying. “Every forwarder has needed to entirely rebuild their service offering,” Meincke said in an interview with JOC.com. “This will definitely drive consolidation in the forwarding market. I predict that with the passenger flight situation continuing until at least the end of 2021, it will change the forwarding landscape.” The severe space constraints mean securing access to cargo capacity for customers has become the top priority for global forwarders with scale and volume to use as leverage with airlines that smaller service providers do not enjoy. “The investments we have been making in creating a dedicated air cargo network, a smaller forwarder could not do,” Meincke said. “In the past, it was easy to handle air freight. You’d get one ton of cargo from a customer, go to an airline, and book one ton. But [now] these airlines you have been booking with are not flying anymore. What you need now is a freighter network, and a small forwarder cannot do that.” Passenger aircraft grounded by travel restrictions introduced in late March to slow the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic will not be back at scale until at least 2024, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), and major airlines are slashing the size of their fleets to accommodate a long-term decline in demand. For example, both Cathay Pacific, one of the world’s largest long-haul airlines and a major air cargo carrier, and Singapore Airlines have reported they will be flying only half their fleets in 2021. Similar fleet cuts and network restructuring have been announced by most other Asian carriers and the main airlines in Europe. In such a capacity-constrained market, Jens Bjørn Andersen, CEO of DSV Panalpina, emphasized the importance of having a dedicated freighter network. “We are extremely pleased to have access to the legacy Panalpina freighter network in these times correctly described as the ‘Wild West,’” he said. Heavy demand for charter capacity About one-fifth of global cargo tonnage is traditionally carried in leased or chartered freighters, but Chris Price, president and CEO of Agility Global Integrated Logistics, said the strong and sustained demand for air freight from customers had pushed up the forwarder’s charter activity. “There are significant numbers of transportation moves taking place, and October has been exceptional” he told JOC.com. “For example, we operated 100 charters in the month of October, which is nearly 10 times the usual amount. The normal capacity isn’t there and big shippers have to look at other options to move large volumes by air, such as charter capacity.” John Dietrich, CEO of the world’s largest aircraft leasing company Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings, said the carrier had expanded operations for Amazon in the third quarter and extended services for HP Inc. and several large global freight forwarders, while also adding Cainiao, the logistics arm of Alibaba, to its customer base. “Looking to the fourth quarter, we anticipate solid volumes and yields driven by continued e-commerce growth and end-of-the-year airfreight demand, coupled with the reduction of available cargo capacity in the market,” he said in a third quarter earnings statement. “To meet customer demand, we are reactivating our fourth 747 freighter that had been previously parked. This will add to the three 747 freighters and the 777 we placed back into service during the second quarter of 2020.” With so much belly capacity taken out of service and demand strengthening, rates have remained significantly higher than year over year levels, and as smartphone and electronics product launches further drive up demand , average rates this week began to rise sharply. Click to enlarge . Rates from Shanghai to North Europe increased 14 percent sequentially this week to $5.27 per kilogram, up 81 percent year over year, according to the TAC Index. Shanghai to North America rates were up 8.5 percent over last week at $7.59 per kg, which was more than double the price during the same week last year. Rates on both trade routes are now at levels last seen in June as the prices were coming down off record highs reached in the Q2 lockdowns. While forwarders complain of little visibility into 2021, they expect rates to continue to rise through the fourth quarter and up to Chinese New Year that begins on Feb. 12. Price said air cargo space would be tight to the end of the year, and this would be reflected in rate levels. “Rates vary by the week and the market is so dynamic that if shippers want to have guaranteed space for large volumes, they can expect to pay rate levels that are a multiple of what they used to pay,” he told JOC.com. Added Meincke, “We definitely expect rates to keep going up. The steep rates are being driven by the capacity decline that is much bigger than the demand decline.” Andersen also expects strong demand to continue, but he had a more moderate outlook for the fourth quarter. “A peak season remains to be seen,” he said. “Rates are extremely high, and certain customers are reluctant to use air freight. Volume is still down and will remain so because all the passenger planes are grounded, but we do expect a continuation of the demand.” Niall van de Wouw, managing director of CLIVE Data Services, said market data for October has signaled the air cargo market was still on the road to recovery. “However, there will also be some companies looking over their shoulders at the 3 percent drop in demand in the last week of the month and wondering if the uncertainties caused by the second wave of the virus are about to stop that recovery in its tracks,” he noted in an air cargo update Wednesday. “What we may be seeing is a fall in demand at the end of last month which coincides with government lockdown measures in some countries to curb the second wave of coronavirus,” van de Wouw added. “While the dynamic load factor and air freight rates for the month were higher, this was less built upon demand and more upon low supply, with the minus 26 percent annual decline in capacity. Perhaps this final week of October indicates that the peak might not be as strong as the industry had envisaged and hoped for.” Contact Greg Knowler at greg.knowler@ihsmarkit.com and follow him on Twitter: @greg_knowler .

Air Cargo

Air cargo capacity crunch to drive forwarder consolidation: DB Schenker

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Most US retailers say they have frontloaded sufficient inventory from Asia to get them through the first quarter, but planning import volumes and supply chains beyond that point remains problematic. </div>

Most US retailers say they have frontloaded sufficient inventory from Asia to get them through the first quarter, but planning import volumes and supply chains beyond that point remains problematic.

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<div class="phx-topic"><div class="wrapper-narrow float-right-element"><img src="/images/phoenix/5910621_0.1.png"></img></div>The big picture: The eastbound trans-Pacific rebounded in a big way last year, and although growth is expected to moderate in 2025, frontloading of spring merchandise ahead of tariffs threatened by US President-elect Donald Trump and an early Lunar New Year should keep cargo volumes and spot rates elevated into the first quarter. Carrier on-time performance in the busiest US trade lane continued to languish throughout 2024, with no noticeable improvements foreseen as geopolitical turmoil continues to disrupt global shipping patterns. A look back: US importers began to frontload fall and holiday shipments in June, two months earlier than usual, and the peak shipping season in the eastbound trans-Pacific continued through the end of the year, two months later than usual. The extended peak season occurred as importers rushed to get ahead of the initial expiration of the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) contract covering dockworkers up and down the East and Gulf coasts in October, the early Lunar New Year on Jan. 29, 2025, and the threat of tariffs by the incoming Trump administration. As a result, US imports from Asia spiked 17.7% in the first 11 months of the year, according to PIERS, a sister product of the Journal of Commerce within S&amp;P Global. In turn, spot rates increased to near-pandemic levels and remained elevated through November and into December. Short-term pricing from Asia to the US West Coast averaged $4,626 per FEU through mid-December, more than triple the average rate of $1,519 per FEU recorded for the full year in 2023, according to Platts, also part of S&amp;P Global. And with inflation steadily declining and interest rates edging lower following rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, consumer demand was expected to remain at record levels through the end of the year. A look ahead: Retailers and other importers entered the new year facing the triple threat of a possible second strike by the ILA, with its extended contract set to expire on Jan. 15, damaging tariffs on China, Mexico and Canada threatened by the new administration and the early start to Lunar New Year, when many factories in Asia close down for a couple of weeks. These events, which prompted continued frontloading of imports, were projected to keep import volumes elevated at least through January. According to a December forecast from the National Retail Federation (NRF), US imports will rise 12% year over year in January, fall 4.1% in February as factories in Asia close for Lunar New Year, and jump 12.7% in March, when factories return to full production. Carriers and their customers anticipate that the hostilities in the Red Sea that have steered shipping away from the Suez Canal to the much longer and costlier route around the southern tip of Africa for more than a year will continue for some time to come, and they have adjusted their supply chains accordingly. The next inflection: The big unknown for the trans-Pacific in 2025 is Trump’s threatened tariffs, which are steeped in uncertainties. Will there be an across-the-board tariff on US imports from all countries, and even higher tariffs on imports from key trading partners like China, Mexico and Canada? Will the tariffs become effective on day one of the new administration, or will they be phased in over a period of several months? Most retailers say they have frontloaded sufficient inventory to get them through the first quarter, but planning import volumes and supply chains beyond that point remains problematic. email: <a href="bill.mongelluzzo@spglobal.com">bill.mongelluzzo@spglobal.com</a> </div>

The big picture: The eastbound trans-Pacific rebounded in a big way last year, and although growth is expected to moderate in 2025, frontloading of spring merchandise ahead of tariffs threatened by US President-elect Donald Trump and an early Lunar New Year should keep cargo volumes and spot rates elevated into the first quarter. Carrier on-time performance in the busiest US trade lane continued to languish throughout 2024, with no noticeable improvements foreseen as geopolitical turmoil continues to disrupt global shipping patterns. A look back: US importers began to frontload fall and holiday shipments in June, two months earlier than usual, and the peak shipping season in the eastbound trans-Pacific continued through the end of the year, two months later than usual. The extended peak season occurred as importers rushed to get ahead of the initial expiration of the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) contract covering dockworkers up and down the East and Gulf coasts in October, the early Lunar New Year on Jan. 29, 2025, and the threat of tariffs by the incoming Trump administration. As a result, US imports from Asia spiked 17.7% in the first 11 months of the year, according to PIERS, a sister product of the Journal of Commerce within S&P Global. In turn, spot rates increased to near-pandemic levels and remained elevated through November and into December. Short-term pricing from Asia to the US West Coast averaged $4,626 per FEU through mid-December, more than triple the average rate of $1,519 per FEU recorded for the full year in 2023, according to Platts, also part of S&P Global. And with inflation steadily declining and interest rates edging lower following rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, consumer demand was expected to remain at record levels through the end of the year. A look ahead: Retailers and other importers entered the new year facing the triple threat of a possible second strike by the ILA, with its extended contract set to expire on Jan. 15, damaging tariffs on China, Mexico and Canada threatened by the new administration and the early start to Lunar New Year, when many factories in Asia close down for a couple of weeks. These events, which prompted continued frontloading of imports, were projected to keep import volumes elevated at least through January. According to a December forecast from the National Retail Federation (NRF), US imports will rise 12% year over year in January, fall 4.1% in February as factories in Asia close for Lunar New Year, and jump 12.7% in March, when factories return to full production. Carriers and their customers anticipate that the hostilities in the Red Sea that have steered shipping away from the Suez Canal to the much longer and costlier route around the southern tip of Africa for more than a year will continue for some time to come, and they have adjusted their supply chains accordingly. The next inflection: The big unknown for the trans-Pacific in 2025 is Trump’s threatened tariffs, which are steeped in uncertainties. Will there be an across-the-board tariff on US imports from all countries, and even higher tariffs on imports from key trading partners like China, Mexico and Canada? Will the tariffs become effective on day one of the new administration, or will they be phased in over a period of several months? Most retailers say they have frontloaded sufficient inventory to get them through the first quarter, but planning import volumes and supply chains beyond that point remains problematic. email: bill.mongelluzzo@spglobal.com

Container Shipping News

Container lines

Forwarding

Trans-Pacific

Tariffs, ILA tension, early Lunar New Year boost Q1 trans-Pacific forecast

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper"> The considerable intermodal ocean volumes that ordinarily would have moved in 2025 have likely been pulled forward into 2024, writes analyst Larry Gross. </div>

The considerable intermodal ocean volumes that ordinarily would have moved in 2025 have likely been pulled forward into 2024, writes analyst Larry Gross.

<div class="phx-topic">Last year proved to be a strong but turbulent year for North American intermodal. The sector was the recipient of a potent stew of exterior events, some entirely foreseeable and others truly of the “black swan” variety. Overall activity was up significantly, with North American intermodal originations growing 7.5% year over year through the first week of December, according to data from the Association of American Railroads (AAR).<div class="wrapper-narrow float-right-element"><img src="/images/phoenix/5910621_0.1.png"></img></div>The horsepower behind the gain came from the international side of the market. In the first 10 months of 2024, North American revenue movements of ISO containers jumped 15% above prior year, compared with a 3.1% gain in domestic containers and trailers, according to Intermodal Association of North America (IANA) data.A mix of factors drove the gains in international intermodal, including strong retail activity that drove overall import levels and US West Coast ports gaining import share as the long-term trend toward East Coast routings went into reverse. One reason was clearly foreseeable: labor instability on the East and Gulf coasts that culminated in a brief strike that, while suspended for the moment, remains an issue for 2025. But another big reason was the closing of the Suez Canal routing due to Houthi rebels, some 1,500 kilometers distant, firing missiles at passing container ships in the Red Sea. The required routing around Africa added days and dollars to East Coast imports, changing the calculus for shippers choosing between the East and West coasts. Any share shift from east to west constitutes an intermodal tailwind, as the lengths of haul to interior points from the West Coast are much longer and more intermodal-friendly than the more truck-oriented East Coast ports. Undoubtedly, another source of strength was cargo moving earlier than normal to beat or meet congestion, delays, and now, tariffs. This latter, combined with the looming and likely resumption of an East Coast shutdown, will ensure that volume will stay strong through the end of the year. By contrast, the domestic intermodal picture has been much more restrained. The domestic truck market that is a dominant force governing intermodal activity remained difficult, with slow growth in demand and too much capacity. The for-hire carriers that constitute the primary competition for intermodal were further stymied by freight shifting to private fleets. From a geographic perspective, the US was the big winner in 2024, as Canadian markets were badly hurt by repeated labor disruptions. Through October, intra-US activity jumped 9.8%, intra-Canada loadings rose just 4.8% and movements crossing the Canada-US border slipped 2.9%. The Mexico market was extremely strong, with total activity surging by more than 30%, propelled by huge gains in the small but fast-growing domestic sector. However, this strength did not extend to the Mexico-US cross-border market, which has seen a decline year-to-date. The intermodal system has handled the surge reasonably well, without experiencing the service disruptions that were widespread during the COVID-19 pandemic. As the year came to a close, average intermodal train speeds were running a bit below normal and container dwell times in the Los Angeles basin had been stretched. But the number of trains being held in terminals awaiting crews or locomotives was actually lower than normal, indicating that supplies of these critical inputs were more than adequate. The outlook for 2025 appears to be somewhat constrained, particularly on the international side. The considerable volumes that ordinarily would have moved next year have likely been pulled forward into 2024. This somewhat artificial “sugar high” will eventually have to be repaid. In addition, the huge growth differential between international and domestic in 2024 will not endure. The gap will need to be closed by some combination of slowing international volumes and accelerating domestic shipments. The supply-demand balance for domestic truckload has been improving very slowly. Demand has been rising, a trend that is expected to continue, but a dramatic upturn does not appear to be in the cards. Many of the proposed actions that may occur under a second Trump administration could prove to be inflationary, including higher tariffs and large-scale deportation of migrants, many of whom are currently contributing to the workforce. The disruption could be considerable, and in the near term, this poses more of a downside risk than upside potential for 2025. However, the market share shift from for-hire to privates appears to have ended. This, plus a continued slow exiting of capacity, should help shore up trucking rates. The improving situation in truckload will provide an opportunity for domestic intermodal. Railroads have lost considerable share since 2018 due to the implementation of precision scheduled railroading, followed by service disruptions and capacity crises during the pandemic. A small green shoot was spotted in the third quarter of 2024, as domestic intermodal’s share of US long-haul truck movements edged up to 6.1% after spending over a year at 6.0%. This may be a harbinger of continued growth but could also just be noise in the numbers. Time will tell. Intermodal activity in the third quarter was just about equal to the average volume per quarter that was seen in 2017. In other words, the sector has seen zero growth in six years, and those who ascribe the current slow growth to near-term market conditions are mistaken. This is a long-term problem. As such, intermodal needs a competitive strategy that will enable it to thrive in both flush times and lean times. Getting service levels in order was a necessary first step, but by itself, this will be insufficient to drive growth. Further adjustments in the price, service and accessibility equation will be required. Contact Larry Gross at <a href="lgross@intermodalindepth.com ">lgross@intermodalindepth.com</a>.</div>

Last year proved to be a strong but turbulent year for North American intermodal. The sector was the recipient of a potent stew of exterior events, some entirely foreseeable and others truly of the “black swan” variety. Overall activity was up significantly, with North American intermodal originations growing 7.5% year over year through the first week of December, according to data from the Association of American Railroads (AAR). The horsepower behind the gain came from the international side of the market. In the first 10 months of 2024, North American revenue movements of ISO containers jumped 15% above prior year, compared with a 3.1% gain in domestic containers and trailers, according to Intermodal Association of North America (IANA) data. A mix of factors drove the gains in international intermodal, including strong retail activity that drove overall import levels and US West Coast ports gaining import share as the long-term trend toward East Coast routings went into reverse. One reason was clearly foreseeable: labor instability on the East and Gulf coasts that culminated in a brief strike that, while suspended for the moment, remains an issue for 2025. But another big reason was the closing of the Suez Canal routing due to Houthi rebels, some 1,500 kilometers distant, firing missiles at passing container ships in the Red Sea. The required routing around Africa added days and dollars to East Coast imports, changing the calculus for shippers choosing between the East and West coasts. Any share shift from east to west constitutes an intermodal tailwind, as the lengths of haul to interior points from the West Coast are much longer and more intermodal-friendly than the more truck-oriented East Coast ports. Undoubtedly, another source of strength was cargo moving earlier than normal to beat or meet congestion, delays, and now, tariffs. This latter, combined with the looming and likely resumption of an East Coast shutdown, will ensure that volume will stay strong through the end of the year. By contrast, the domestic intermodal picture has been much more restrained. The domestic truck market that is a dominant force governing intermodal activity remained difficult, with slow growth in demand and too much capacity. The for-hire carriers that constitute the primary competition for intermodal were further stymied by freight shifting to private fleets. From a geographic perspective, the US was the big winner in 2024, as Canadian markets were badly hurt by repeated labor disruptions. Through October, intra-US activity jumped 9.8%, intra-Canada loadings rose just 4.8% and movements crossing the Canada-US border slipped 2.9%. The Mexico market was extremely strong, with total activity surging by more than 30%, propelled by huge gains in the small but fast-growing domestic sector. However, this strength did not extend to the Mexico-US cross-border market, which has seen a decline year-to-date. The intermodal system has handled the surge reasonably well, without experiencing the service disruptions that were widespread during the COVID-19 pandemic. As the year came to a close, average intermodal train speeds were running a bit below normal and container dwell times in the Los Angeles basin had been stretched. But the number of trains being held in terminals awaiting crews or locomotives was actually lower than normal, indicating that supplies of these critical inputs were more than adequate. The outlook for 2025 appears to be somewhat constrained, particularly on the international side. The considerable volumes that ordinarily would have moved next year have likely been pulled forward into 2024. This somewhat artificial “sugar high” will eventually have to be repaid. In addition, the huge growth differential between international and domestic in 2024 will not endure. The gap will need to be closed by some combination of slowing international volumes and accelerating domestic shipments. The supply-demand balance for domestic truckload has been improving very slowly. Demand has been rising, a trend that is expected to continue, but a dramatic upturn does not appear to be in the cards. Many of the proposed actions that may occur under a second Trump administration could prove to be inflationary, including higher tariffs and large-scale deportation of migrants, many of whom are currently contributing to the workforce. The disruption could be considerable, and in the near term, this poses more of a downside risk than upside potential for 2025. However, the market share shift from for-hire to privates appears to have ended. This, plus a continued slow exiting of capacity, should help shore up trucking rates. The improving situation in truckload will provide an opportunity for domestic intermodal. Railroads have lost considerable share since 2018 due to the implementation of precision scheduled railroading, followed by service disruptions and capacity crises during the pandemic. A small green shoot was spotted in the third quarter of 2024, as domestic intermodal’s share of US long-haul truck movements edged up to 6.1% after spending over a year at 6.0%. This may be a harbinger of continued growth but could also just be noise in the numbers. Time will tell. Intermodal activity in the third quarter was just about equal to the average volume per quarter that was seen in 2017. In other words, the sector has seen zero growth in six years, and those who ascribe the current slow growth to near-term market conditions are mistaken. This is a long-term problem. As such, intermodal needs a competitive strategy that will enable it to thrive in both flush times and lean times. Getting service levels in order was a necessary first step, but by itself, this will be insufficient to drive growth. Further adjustments in the price, service and accessibility equation will be required. Contact Larry Gross at lgross@intermodalindepth.com .

Port News

North American ports

North-American rail

International rail

Intermodal providers

International intermodal market enters “constrained” 2025: analyst

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Extended voyages around southern Africa are currently tying up both refrigerated equipment and vessel capacity, making reefer shippers particularly vulnerable to disruptions. </div>

Extended voyages around southern Africa are currently tying up both refrigerated equipment and vessel capacity, making reefer shippers particularly vulnerable to disruptions.

<div class="phx-topic"><div class="wrapper-narrow float-right-element"><img src="/images/phoenix/5910624_0.1.png"></img></div>The big picture: Amid increased demand for equipment and projected market growth, the refrigerated (reefer) container market is positioned to see increased competitiveness in 2025. With the looming threat of operational interruptions from ongoing port labor negotiations, time-sensitive reefers could bear the brunt of work stoppage impacts. Meanwhile, extended transit times around Africa are putting further pressure on equipment availability.A look back: The reefer market experienced some upward support in 2024 as global trends put pressure on the cold chain. Analysts noted an increase in demand for reefer cargo during the year, particularly for agriculture exports from South America. US reefer imports from South America grew 11.8% year over year in the first nine months of 2024, including a 17.6% jump in August, according to PIERS, a sister product of the Journal of Commerce within S&amp;P Global. In addition to increases in demand for fresh cargo, the cold chain market has been supported by the growing pharmaceutical and chemicals sectors. Meanwhile, the diversion of vessels away from the Red Sea and resulting longer transits have tied up sought-after reefer equipment. The threat of labor stoppages at US East and Gulf coast ports also led some to shifts in shipping patterns, as concerns about time-sensitive cargo being abandoned at ports during a strike prompted shippers to consider alternative solutions before the initial Oct. 1 negotiation deadline. The brief strike by the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) had marginal ripple effects on equipment availability as cargo was delayed during the interruption. Other port stoppages were brought on by severe weather in Asia, including several typhoons that have impacted vessel flows. A look ahead: Reefer shippers using US East and Gulf coast ports will be keeping a close eye on the next ILA strike deadline on Jan. 15, as perishable cargoes are particularly vulnerable to spoilage during delays of any kind. Also of concern will be the impacts of sweeping tariffs threatened by US President-elect Donald Trump. Those tariffs, if enacted, could result in shifting sourcing patterns for dry goods, but this may not be an option for certain reefer shippers, who would be forced to either eat the additional costs or raise prices to pass those costs on to their customers. Weather patterns are always a factor in reefer trade, and as climate patterns become increasingly unpredictable, shifted harvest timelines could further strain equipment availability in 2025. Still, analysts expect the market to remain largely stable in the coming year, with equipment availability easing as South American beef exports wane. The next inflection: As in dry container trade, one of the biggest unknowns going forward for reefer shippers is when the Red Sea will become safe enough for carriers to resume transiting the Suez Canal. Extended voyages around southern Africa are currently tying up both reefer equipment and vessel capacity, and a resumption of the Suez Canal routings would immediately release that supply back into the market, putting downward pressure on rates. Contact Laura Robb at <a href="laura.robb@spglobal.com ">laura.robb@spglobal.com</a>.</div>

The big picture: Amid increased demand for equipment and projected market growth, the refrigerated (reefer) container market is positioned to see increased competitiveness in 2025. With the looming threat of operational interruptions from ongoing port labor negotiations, time-sensitive reefers could bear the brunt of work stoppage impacts. Meanwhile, extended transit times around Africa are putting further pressure on equipment availability. A look back: The reefer market experienced some upward support in 2024 as global trends put pressure on the cold chain. Analysts noted an increase in demand for reefer cargo during the year, particularly for agriculture exports from South America. US reefer imports from South America grew 11.8% year over year in the first nine months of 2024, including a 17.6% jump in August, according to PIERS, a sister product of the Journal of Commerce within S&P Global. In addition to increases in demand for fresh cargo, the cold chain market has been supported by the growing pharmaceutical and chemicals sectors. Meanwhile, the diversion of vessels away from the Red Sea and resulting longer transits have tied up sought-after reefer equipment. The threat of labor stoppages at US East and Gulf coast ports also led some to shifts in shipping patterns, as concerns about time-sensitive cargo being abandoned at ports during a strike prompted shippers to consider alternative solutions before the initial Oct. 1 negotiation deadline. The brief strike by the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) had marginal ripple effects on equipment availability as cargo was delayed during the interruption. Other port stoppages were brought on by severe weather in Asia, including several typhoons that have impacted vessel flows. A look ahead: Reefer shippers using US East and Gulf coast ports will be keeping a close eye on the next ILA strike deadline on Jan. 15, as perishable cargoes are particularly vulnerable to spoilage during delays of any kind. Also of concern will be the impacts of sweeping tariffs threatened by US President-elect Donald Trump. Those tariffs, if enacted, could result in shifting sourcing patterns for dry goods, but this may not be an option for certain reefer shippers, who would be forced to either eat the additional costs or raise prices to pass those costs on to their customers. Weather patterns are always a factor in reefer trade, and as climate patterns become increasingly unpredictable, shifted harvest timelines could further strain equipment availability in 2025. Still, analysts expect the market to remain largely stable in the coming year, with equipment availability easing as South American beef exports wane. The next inflection: As in dry container trade, one of the biggest unknowns going forward for reefer shippers is when the Red Sea will become safe enough for carriers to resume transiting the Suez Canal. Extended voyages around southern Africa are currently tying up both reefer equipment and vessel capacity, and a resumption of the Suez Canal routings would immediately release that supply back into the market, putting downward pressure on rates. Contact Laura Robb at laura.robb@spglobal.com .

Reefer market growth in 2025 filled with risk

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Despite a glut of capacity on the water, Suez Canal diversions and healthy volumes will keep container shipping vessel supply tight, analysts predict. </div>

Despite a glut of capacity on the water, Suez Canal diversions and healthy volumes will keep container shipping vessel supply tight, analysts predict.

<div class="phx-topic"><div class="wrapper-narrow float-right-element"><img src="/images/phoenix/5910621_0.1.png"></img></div>The big picture: Container carriers remain in robust financial health after a highly profitable year, and that profitability looks set to continue through 2025, with a series of geopolitical factors soaking up supply and driving demand. Despite a glut of capacity on the water, Suez Canal diversions and healthy volumes — especially on the trans-Pacific — will keep vessel supply tight, and analysts predict this will lift annual fixed-rate agreements above 2024 levels on the major east-west trades out of Asia. A look back: At the end of 2023, the container shipping industry was staring at a bloated order book, as well as excess inventory, rising inflation and a cost-of-living crisis in major destination economies, all of which pointed to a drop in demand for imports from Asia in 2024. But longer transits around southern Africa to avoid attacks on commercial ships in the Red Sea quickly absorbed excess tonnage, and shippers began advancing orders and building up safety inventory, which led to early peak seasons on both the trans-Pacific and Asia-Europe trades. Bottlenecks at hub ports in Asia and Europe consumed additional capacity, and as space tightened further, carriers began to cut weekly space allocations, pushing shippers to the spot market, where short-term rates hit levels not seen since the COVID-19 pandemic. Carrier profitability soared and maritime consultancy Drewry has estimated container shipping will report a pre-tax profit of $50 billion this year, up from $28 billion in 2023. While it is a fraction of the $298 billion recorded in 2022, the carriers will enter an uncertain 2025 in solid financial health. The steep rise in profit was not accompanied by a corresponding improvement in service levels, however. Port congestion was a key issue through much of the year even as the Red Sea diversions became baked into Asia-Europe and Asia-US East Coast routes, with schedule reliability averaging just over 50% in the first 10 months of the year, according to data from Sea-Intelligence Maritime Analysis. A look ahead: The threat of higher US import tariffs and a potential second strike by dockworkers on the East and Gulf coasts are expected to drive additional frontloading of US-bound cargo, while an early Jan. 29 start to Lunar New Year festivities in Asia and ongoing Red Sea diversions will likely prompt EU importers to advance orders. In other words, all signs point to continued strong demand and capacity constraints on the major east-west trades that will keep rates elevated, virtually guaranteeing carriers a strong first quarter and potentially setting up an early peak season similar to 2024. Container shipping analyst Clarksons estimates nominal fleet capacity growth will slow from over 10% in 2024 to 5% in 2025 against an estimated 18% increase in TEU-mile demand in 2024 and 3% growth in 2025. Still, carriers have had a lot of practice flexing capacity to match demand in the past few years, so cargo owners can expect tight space on ships out of Asia and an elevated spot market to push up contract rates. Banking and financial services firm HSBC said it expects trans-Pacific and Asia-Europe contract rates to rise significantly in 2025, a dynamic that is likely to once again test shipper-carrier relationships. For shippers, however, building flexibility into those annual contracts to withstand the volatile markets will be crucial. The next inflection: On top of ongoing uncertainty, cargo owners will navigate an extensive shakeup in carrier operations from early 2025. In February, Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd will exit the 2M and THE alliances, respectively, to officially launch the Gemini Cooperation, former 2M member Mediterranean Shipping Co. will commence its own standalone network, and the remaining members of THE will rebrand as the Premier Alliance, leaving only the Ocean Alliance unchanged. The Gemini partners have promised 90% on-time vessel performance in their new hub-and-spoke network, a standard that, if delivered, would be a significant improvement from the abysmal service levels seen in recent years and introduce a welcome competitive element to carrier negotiations. Contact Greg Knowler at <a href="greg.knowler@spglobal.com">greg.knowler@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

The big picture: Container carriers remain in robust financial health after a highly profitable year, and that profitability looks set to continue through 2025, with a series of geopolitical factors soaking up supply and driving demand. Despite a glut of capacity on the water, Suez Canal diversions and healthy volumes — especially on the trans-Pacific — will keep vessel supply tight, and analysts predict this will lift annual fixed-rate agreements above 2024 levels on the major east-west trades out of Asia. A look back: At the end of 2023, the container shipping industry was staring at a bloated order book, as well as excess inventory, rising inflation and a cost-of-living crisis in major destination economies, all of which pointed to a drop in demand for imports from Asia in 2024. But longer transits around southern Africa to avoid attacks on commercial ships in the Red Sea quickly absorbed excess tonnage, and shippers began advancing orders and building up safety inventory, which led to early peak seasons on both the trans-Pacific and Asia-Europe trades. Bottlenecks at hub ports in Asia and Europe consumed additional capacity, and as space tightened further, carriers began to cut weekly space allocations, pushing shippers to the spot market, where short-term rates hit levels not seen since the COVID-19 pandemic. Carrier profitability soared and maritime consultancy Drewry has estimated container shipping will report a pre-tax profit of $50 billion this year, up from $28 billion in 2023. While it is a fraction of the $298 billion recorded in 2022, the carriers will enter an uncertain 2025 in solid financial health. The steep rise in profit was not accompanied by a corresponding improvement in service levels, however. Port congestion was a key issue through much of the year even as the Red Sea diversions became baked into Asia-Europe and Asia-US East Coast routes, with schedule reliability averaging just over 50% in the first 10 months of the year, according to data from Sea-Intelligence Maritime Analysis. A look ahead: The threat of higher US import tariffs and a potential second strike by dockworkers on the East and Gulf coasts are expected to drive additional frontloading of US-bound cargo, while an early Jan. 29 start to Lunar New Year festivities in Asia and ongoing Red Sea diversions will likely prompt EU importers to advance orders. In other words, all signs point to continued strong demand and capacity constraints on the major east-west trades that will keep rates elevated, virtually guaranteeing carriers a strong first quarter and potentially setting up an early peak season similar to 2024. Container shipping analyst Clarksons estimates nominal fleet capacity growth will slow from over 10% in 2024 to 5% in 2025 against an estimated 18% increase in TEU-mile demand in 2024 and 3% growth in 2025. Still, carriers have had a lot of practice flexing capacity to match demand in the past few years, so cargo owners can expect tight space on ships out of Asia and an elevated spot market to push up contract rates. Banking and financial services firm HSBC said it expects trans-Pacific and Asia-Europe contract rates to rise significantly in 2025, a dynamic that is likely to once again test shipper-carrier relationships. For shippers, however, building flexibility into those annual contracts to withstand the volatile markets will be crucial. The next inflection: On top of ongoing uncertainty, cargo owners will navigate an extensive shakeup in carrier operations from early 2025. In February, Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd will exit the 2M and THE alliances, respectively, to officially launch the Gemini Cooperation, former 2M member Mediterranean Shipping Co. will commence its own standalone network, and the remaining members of THE will rebrand as the Premier Alliance, leaving only the Ocean Alliance unchanged. The Gemini partners have promised 90% on-time vessel performance in their new hub-and-spoke network, a standard that, if delivered, would be a significant improvement from the abysmal service levels seen in recent years and introduce a welcome competitive element to carrier negotiations. Contact Greg Knowler at greg.knowler@spglobal.com .

Trans-Atlantic

Asia-Europe

Continued volatility to keep container line profits on course in 2025

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">With volumes likely to increase again in 2025, new port infrastructure across the region should help maintain fluidity throughout the coming year.</div>

With volumes likely to increase again in 2025, new port infrastructure across the region should help maintain fluidity throughout the coming year.

<div class="phx-topic">The big picture: US Gulf Coast ports have seen higher-than-expected container volumes as consumer spending remained resilient during 2024 and shippers brought in cargo ahead of the deadline for a longshore labor strike. With volumes likely to increase again in 2025, new port infrastructure across the region should help maintain fluidity throughout the coming year. <div class="wrapper-narrow float-right-element"><img src="/images/phoenix/5910620_0.1.png"></img></div>A look back: The Port of Houston continues to be the region’s preferred gateway, with containerized imports rising 9.3% in the first 11 months of 2024, according to PIERS, a sister product of the Journal of Commerce within S&amp;P Global. That year-to-date growth has significantly outstripped the 1% total volume growth forecast in Port of Houston’s 2024 operating budget, as well as the 7.9% growth rate for the Gulf Coast region as a whole. Despite a hurricane and a CrowdStrike outage, both of which shut the port down for several days, and a three-day coastwide dockworker strike, Houston’s two marine terminals remained fluid, evidenced by low container dwell and truck turn times throughout the year. The ports of Mobile and New Orleans saw container imports grow 4.2% and 4.8%, respectively, through November. Amid the import growth, ocean carriers have added more container services to the US Gulf Coast. Zim Integrated Shipping Services also added its first north-south container service to the Gulf Coast, with calls at Houston and Mobile. A look ahead: Houston has already started testing its first appointment system for drayage drivers, and the port hopes to increase voluntary participation to over 70% before mandating its use sometime in 2025. Houston’s container handling capacity is set for a boost with the expected mid-2025 completion of the first half of Project 11, a widening of the port’s shipping channel that will allow an additional 1,400 vessels of all types to call the port each year. The completion of a major phase of Project 11 coincides with the installation of three new cranes at Houston’s Bayport terminal, with another eight on order for a new berth. Mobile will be able to handle increased volumes in 2025 with the addition of two new cranes at its container terminal last year. The port is also furthering its intermodal access, with plans announced in 2024 for the development of the North Alabama inland port, served by CSX Transportation and catering to the state’s manufacturing sector. Mobile also plans to open another inland port in Montgomery, Alabama, early this year. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="1a3cc60a-ab27-40f6-b828-ca14a4f96ca6"></dynamic-object></div>The next inflection: Mobile will also increase vessel capacity in mid-2025 with the end of its harbor modernization project, which will deepen the port to 50 feet and allow easier passage for large vessels. Mobile also announced the fourth expansion of its container terminal, which will eventually bring its capacity to over 1 million TEUs per year. New Orleans will also start work this year on its new terminal, the 2 million-TEU Louisiana International Terminal, after receiving $300 million in federal grants, with a goal of receiving its first ships in 2028. Contact Michael Angell at <a href="mailto:michael.angell@spglobal.com">michael.angell@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

The big picture: US Gulf Coast ports have seen higher-than-expected container volumes as consumer spending remained resilient during 2024 and shippers brought in cargo ahead of the deadline for a longshore labor strike. With volumes likely to increase again in 2025, new port infrastructure across the region should help maintain fluidity throughout the coming year. A look back: The Port of Houston continues to be the region’s preferred gateway, with containerized imports rising 9.3% in the first 11 months of 2024, according to PIERS, a sister product of the Journal of Commerce within S&P Global. That year-to-date growth has significantly outstripped the 1% total volume growth forecast in Port of Houston’s 2024 operating budget, as well as the 7.9% growth rate for the Gulf Coast region as a whole. Despite a hurricane and a CrowdStrike outage, both of which shut the port down for several days, and a three-day coastwide dockworker strike, Houston’s two marine terminals remained fluid, evidenced by low container dwell and truck turn times throughout the year. The ports of Mobile and New Orleans saw container imports grow 4.2% and 4.8%, respectively, through November. Amid the import growth, ocean carriers have added more container services to the US Gulf Coast. Zim Integrated Shipping Services also added its first north-south container service to the Gulf Coast, with calls at Houston and Mobile. A look ahead: Houston has already started testing its first appointment system for drayage drivers, and the port hopes to increase voluntary participation to over 70% before mandating its use sometime in 2025. Houston’s container handling capacity is set for a boost with the expected mid-2025 completion of the first half of Project 11, a widening of the port’s shipping channel that will allow an additional 1,400 vessels of all types to call the port each year. The completion of a major phase of Project 11 coincides with the installation of three new cranes at Houston’s Bayport terminal, with another eight on order for a new berth. Mobile will be able to handle increased volumes in 2025 with the addition of two new cranes at its container terminal last year. The port is also furthering its intermodal access, with plans announced in 2024 for the development of the North Alabama inland port, served by CSX Transportation and catering to the state’s manufacturing sector. Mobile also plans to open another inland port in Montgomery, Alabama, early this year. The next inflection: Mobile will also increase vessel capacity in mid-2025 with the end of its harbor modernization project, which will deepen the port to 50 feet and allow easier passage for large vessels. Mobile also announced the fourth expansion of its container terminal, which will eventually bring its capacity to over 1 million TEUs per year. New Orleans will also start work this year on its new terminal, the 2 million-TEU Louisiana International Terminal, after receiving $300 million in federal grants, with a goal of receiving its first ships in 2028. Contact Michael Angell at michael.angell@spglobal.com .

Maritime

US Gulf Coast ports expanding to handle continued volume growth

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The world of LTL is slow to embrace change. Business anachronisms permeate current supply chain processes. These vestiges of the way things used to work define the LTL freight transportation procurement process of many modern shippers.David Knuth, logistics specialist at IEWC, a global supplier of cable and wire based in Wisconsin, is happy to have modernized the RFP process, automating the entire LTL bidding procedure with Bid$ense, SMC³’s automated truckload and LTL freight transportation sourcing solution. But when prompted, he can still recall what once was.In his previous job, a large part of his duties were consumed by creating an intermodal bid package for carriers. In a spreadsheet, Knuth detailed the company’s volumes lane by lane, taking care to delete any errant keystrokes or misleading data. He would then email out the information to each carrier, taking time to respond to detailed technical questions about the spreadsheet data. Finally, he had to compile all the results, create an algorithm that would compare the carriers on each lane, and award the business.“It was a huge undertaking. It took about four months to do,” Knuth said of the old process. “It was almost a full-time job for that part of the year, every year.”In his new job at IEWC, he sat down with Bid$ense on day one and was amazed at the capabilities. Knuth had never before used a bid tool. SMC³’s latest versions of Bid$ense automate the process even further, taking truckload and LTL RFPs entirely online. The tool draws on RFP best-practices protocols to streamline the bidding communication process, enabling bidding carriers to respond accurately and promptly to shipper requests. The solution also does all the distribution work automatically, electronically submitting shipper bid data to carriers based on their actual service capabilities and performance records. Carriers are alerted with timely prompts for RFP deliverables, so shippers aren’t waiting by the phone for responses.Another benefit of automating the process is the data-cleansing assistance. When Knuth sent spreadsheets to carriers, data errors might cloud the bidding process; he might have to resend data or simply accept a price that did not truly reflect the costs of doing business. Data cleansing is incredibly beneficial, he said.The spreadsheet technique also made bidding analysis an onerous task. Since Bid$ense automates and streamlines the entire RFP process, intensive examination is now simple. SMC³ knows that each bid has more than one best outcome. With uniform responses from each carrier, shippers can quickly rank results and create an unlimited quantity of what-if scenarios to make the optimal procurement decision.Jesse Burnett of Central Garden &amp; Pet experiences many of the same benefits. Founded in 1980, Central Garden &amp; Pet has spent the last three decades growing from a small garden supply company to a provider of a range of products from dog chews and bird seed to soil supplements and natural insecticides. For much of its life, the company shipped these disparate goods via LTL and truckload carriers to retailers throughout the country, relying on each business unit to negotiate directly with their freight transportation providers. This arrangement worked fairly well for a small company, but as Central Garden &amp; Pet expanded, leadership decided to consolidate decision making.Burnett helped centralize the transportation decision making in 2015 with SMC³’s Bid$ense. Before Bid$ense, every business unit operated independently as far as negotiating with carriers.“There were a lot of different things just floating around,” he said. “We didn’t have master agreements in place; no national pricing at all. The pricing from carriers was just all over the place, depending on where you were.”The transformations he saw with Bid$ense were immediate. Burnett has been using the tool about every other year since its implementation at the company. Central Garden and Pet’s $19.6 million 2019 LTL bid saved the company just more than 9 percent when compared to its historical average. For Burnett, though, bid automation extends far beyond savings.“We knew that we weren’t getting the best pricing offer from our carriers just because nothing was centralized,” he continued. “We knew that if we combined everything from all these business units and paired it with one corporate offering, then it would drive some cost benefit with it.”When the company initially decided to centralize bid procurement, executives researched a number of different methodologies and technologies. In the end, though, Burnett found that Bid$ense was both widespread and well known, and that his carrier partners already knew how to use the application. Burnett also highlighted the data-cleansing process as a major benefit, saying the rigorous process ensures that carriers always return the best price.“It definitely has helped drive savings,” he said. “Any time you go out there and you drive that competitiveness with the carriers and they know they’re in a bid environment, it seems to sharpen their pencils.”Transportation procurement is an integral part of the modern supply chain. With Bid$ense, shippers can develop a strategic implementation plan that saves them time and money, but also helps them create strong relationships with their carrier partners. These carriers appreciate the solution’s data-cleansing process; when carriers receive a complete shipment history and future volume forecast, they don’t have to guess on pricing. Carriers that receive more data from shippers get a complete picture of that shipper’s freight, allowing them to accurately plan instead of simply preparing for the worst-case scenario. Clean data presented through an automated system can lead to both bigger shipment savings and a lasting partnership between carrier and customer.Whether customers are looking to streamline over-the-road transportation bidding by automating the RFP process or create an entirely new, centralized sourcing process, Bid$ense has the analytical horsepower to get the job done.SMC³ 2020 Customer Case Study

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Shippers save money, time with automated transportation bidding tools

If there’s one immutable truth in the world of logistics, it’s this: LTL is an inherently complex form of transportation. Tariffs, rates, DIM weights, transit times — it’s enough to confuse even seasoned logistics professionals. The solution to this knowledge gap has historically been on-the-job training or university supply chain education, but for a variety of reasons there is now a pressing need for third-party, remote LTL training that prepares logistics workers for transportation success. Global Scope Can Overlook Local Intricacies In the past, professionals looking to move into a supply chain career learned about the basics of supply chain from universities. However, many of these college supply chain programs are now global in scope, focusing on worldwide supply chain management instead of the intricacies of specialized domestic transportation. And even these programs, which used to be widespread, are becoming less common. LTL is not an industry of broad-brush strokes; supply chain professionals really need a pointillistic understanding of the logistics of LTL in order to excel in the industry. Accelerating Need for Dedicated LTL Education This lack of specified training put the onus on employers to prepare new hires with the LTL knowledge needed to do their jobs. Dedicated LTL study is a necessity, not a luxury. At the same time, changes in LTL and the broader supply chain world are accelerating. The reliance on e-commerce has ballooned since the start of the pandemic, and last-mile LTL shipments and related e-commerce strains on the supply chain won’t diminish once social distancing abates. That genie isn’t going back into the bottle. So supply chain employers need logistics workers that are fully versed in all aspects of the industry, ready to solve unique shipping and delivery problems based on their extensive supply chain knowledge But why care about LTL? It’s been reported that some shippers in today’s world are no longer concerned with what mode is used to ship their goods. A Multimodal Approach Ensures On-Time Delivery This mode agnosticism means supply chain stakeholders have to be well versed in all modes of transportation. As unforeseen weather events and other disruptions, such as protests, become more common, savvy logistics employees will need to be armed with familiarity of all modes, not just the most popular, to ensure that freight is delivered on time, without damage, and in the most financially expedient way possible. Offerings like SMC³’s LTL online education courses cover a wide range of topics from LTL basics and operations to more advanced concepts like pricing analytics and transportation law. The company also has plans to continually refresh content, adding new expert presenters and taking the feedback of students to make the courses even better as time goes on. Learn more about&nbsp;<a href="https://logisticstrainingcenter.com/smc3-courses/" rel="noreferrer" class="joc_admin__link">SMC³’s LTL Online Education program</a>&nbsp;and view the 2021 hybrid schedule, featuring live industry experts,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.smc3.com/onlinelearning2021/" rel="noreferrer" class="joc_admin__link">here.</a>

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