The trends are clear by now. Asian economies are growing and Asian consumers and manufacturers are increasing consumption at a rate faster than their U.S. and European counterparts. Cargo volume reflects this change in global demand patterns. North American export volume is growing, while import volume is flat. While we hope U.S. imports will increase as our economy recovers, we recognize the reality — our export growth will continue to outpace our import growth.
As ocean carriers adjust their fleet and equipment deployment based upon import volume, it is apparent that at some point, the declining capacity will affect our export capability.
In the first phase, freight rates for exports increase; in the second, actual shortages of vessel capacity and equipment (containers) occur. We have seen periodic, sometimes extended and painful, instances of these shortages over recent years, with some regions of the country hit harder than others. But should the export-import trends continue, the export capacity shortfall will become more pervasive.
Railroads recognize this shift in traffic patterns, the continuing shift of traditional bulk commodities into container, increased outbound traffic volume, slower inbound intermodal growth. They are investing considerable amounts in building new infrastructure to facilitate the flow of exports, including redirecting traditional flows to regions of the country where sufficient ocean capacity and equipment are expected to be available.
Some maritime “traditionalists” still say exports never will be the head-haul. But the undeniable trends of relative global currency valuations, growing Asian consumption and wealth are so apparent, it is no longer credible to deny ocean carriers will have to consider export volume and revenue as the primary factor in deploying capacity and equipment.