It’s now apparent, even to many in Congress and the Obama administration who resisted what is obvious to those engaged in international trade, that trade will be the road out of our continuing recession and unemployment, and exports will be the vehicle. Agriculture (and forest products) is what that export vehicle will carry.
The president set forth a goal to double exports in five years. Although that is an ambitious target, economists generally agree on global developments that can make dramatic U.S. export growth not only possible, but also likely (even if not within five years). They include dramatic growth of domestic consumption in Asia, Asian economic growth rates continuing at multiples of the U.S. growth rate and increasing value of foreign currencies versus the dollar. Over time, Asian manufacturers and consumers will outspend North American consumers in volume and value.
These factors are changing the direction of global demand for freight capacity, because traditional cargo flows will change directions. How quickly will the existing transportation networks adapt: to change the current import-driven model; to increase investment and efficiency; to provide the capacity, in locations needed, to capture the growing export demand; and to the increased revenue opportunities offered to carriers and other service providers?
The Agriculture Transportation Coalition this winter will address new U.S., European, Chinese and Canadian documentation requirements, and encourage Customs, the U.S. Department of Agriculture and other agencies to support the export initiative — and not hinder it. How Congress addresses truck weights, hours of service, port truck drayage, rail and ocean freight competition rules, will determine the fate of our economic recovery.
The key is for all participants in global transportation to recognize that the patterns of the past three decades, designed to support the seemingly endless growth of U.S. consumption, are changing rapidly. The global flow of commerce and freight is changing directions.