Global trade is a complex system; change in one area has unintended consequences in other areas. For example, 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum may have benefited some US steel companies, but retaliatory tariffs may have hurt other US companies in an entirely different industry. In short, there are winners, but there are also losers in the trade wars.
Business planning for 2019 has become ever more challenging because of tariff uncertainties. There are also USMCA concerns: How might it be revised? Will it be signed? After 20 years of experience with NAFTA, whether you supported it or not, NAFTA provided stability and predictability in our trade with Canada and Mexico. Planning for a future that may or may not include a NAFTA type agreement is almost impossible, but that’s where we find ourselves in late 2018.
Importers, forwarders, carriers, manufacturers, brokers, and even Customs officials are impacted by these changes and uncertainties. E-commerce has exploded. The possibility of 301 duties will most certainly impact the rising tide of small packages arriving in the US. Because the US Trade Representative has exempted de minimis from the 301 duties, I can see a huge increase in low-value shipments, which will further strain the “system” that is clearly not prepared to handle the volume of this new type of commerce.
Customs and the other government agencies with authority over imports will need to define clear policies covering these transactions, including the required data for screening and targeting against illegal schemes. The data must be adequate to screen for commercial concerns in addition to security risks, and IT systems will need to be capable of handling this increase in data.
It is questionable whether mere manifest data is adequate for both commercial and security purposes, so upgrades and changes in policy may be necessary.