It’s hard not to notice that in a presidential election year, everything being said publicly about trade by politicians and candidates cannot be cast in stone. How much the presidential election will influence the actions of the next Congress with respect to pending trade legislation is currently the best parlor game in Washington. Will the Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement pass? Will the long-stalled “customs reauthorization” bill (formally called the “Trade Facilitation and Trade Enforcement Act”) finally be enacted? Will the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership Agreement being negotiated with the European Union be concluded?
Last year in this column I enumerated the major items on the congressional trade agenda for 2015, and wondered whether the perception of a “do nothing” Congress would continue. Well, Congress certainly stepped up and passed several important trade initiatives: renewal of Generalized System of Preferences; passage of Trade Promotion Authority; renewal and extension of the Africa Growth and Opportunity Act. While the long-expired Miscellaneous Tariff Bills were held up by the political canard that they are “earmarks,” the customs reauthorization bill was put on the back burner, and the expired Tariff Preference Levels for cotton and man-made fiber apparel under the Central America Free Trade Agreement never survived two efforts to renew it. The next Congress will quickly face consideration of the implementation of the controversial Trans-Pacific Partnership. The passage of Trade Promotion Authority legislation in June enabled the administration to complete the negotiations with the other 11 parties to the agreement. Now that the president has released the full text and notified Congress of his intent to sign it, a statutory timetable has begun and the political jockeying either in support or against the agreement is in full force.