“But I know a change gonna come, oh yes it will …” Sam Cooke wrote those lyrics in 1964 on an album entitled “Ain’t That Good News.” Whether we agree or disagree that it’s good news, it’s certain that there will be changes with US trade policy in the new year. Buckle up, it will be a very bumpy journey. Control of the House and Senate will help the Republican administration make seismic changes to our trade relationships with other countries, particularly Mexico, Canada and China. Several of the items in the Trump 7 Point Plan on Free Trade amount to a “do over” in the middle of the game. He has beaten up on 22-year-old North American Free Trade Agreement since he announced his run for presidency and said the Trans-Pacific Partnership will be a job killer. Look for NAFTA to be reworked and renamed. TPP, which took seven years of negotiations, will never happen in its current rendering. The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership in its 15th round of negotiations with the EU has gotten much less coverage but is in Trumps crosshairs as well. The US has free trade agreements with 20 countries … each will be scrutinized. Expect contentious debate with each of them.
Confusion will reign supreme in corporate offices worldwide … this is a good thing for savvy global trade professionals capable of dissecting new trade legislation, parsing it internally and presenting it corporatewide in a very simple “this is how it affects us” style. Trade compliance professional can expect highly visible opportunities to lead your firm through the maze of new regulation. It may very well be reduced regulation, but any new regulation will have the requisite learning curve for both the private and public sector. The results of this election have been the second steroid injection for the careers of global trade professionals in over a generation. The first time being the rush to offshore our manufacturing, today it’s the American economic eagerness to get those jobs back on US soil. Ain’t that good news.