The biggest challenge facing the ocean-going portion of the logistics industry is that there will be little change in 2019. Ocean carriers will continue to be slow to adopt new technologies. Shippers will continue to receive unremarkable service from these carriers. Various entities will continue to subsidize carrier cost of capital which underwrites low rates that generate 3% returns on capital that costs 10%. NVOCC market share will continue to grow. Chassis will continue to be a problem until chassis utilities are established that institute full interoperability. Carrier billing will still be a problem. Regulatory bodies will continue to look for carrier industry infractions, and are unlikely to find any. That rates rise in times of tight capacity and fall in over capacity will continue to surprise some buyers of vessel space. So, it will be more business as usual in the ocean going portion of the logistics industry. This is not good news.
The most promising technology in logistics is the combination of big data and machine learning. I see big data/machine learning making real progress that will have a direct positive impact on logistics. Areas include forecasting customer demand (e.g. knowing you’ll receive an order before you get one), better matching of assets to customer needs (like 45 footers), better forecasting of asset availability (e.g. for US agricultural exporters who ship from rural areas), better allocation of space by carriers in times of tight capacity, better matching of inbound and outbound loads to improve system efficiency, and big data/machine learning will facilitate system driven decisions that improve value for logistics providers and their customers.
Hands down, the most over-hyped technology is blockchain. It reminds me of the hype surrounding the introduction of the Segway years ago. The Segway was going to change the world. It didn’t. Blockchain hasn’t and likely won’t.