The coming year is shaping up to be an extremely challenging one, both for our industry and for carriers.
The key word is “uncertainty,” and it is writ large.
For carriers, it’s uncertainty about continuous oversupply and how to slice this largely self-inflicted Gordian Knot, which has resulted in depressed rate levels that do not look set to change anytime soon. And it’s uncertainty about whether the major acquisitions some have recently made (and those that will undoubtedly soon be made) end up delivering on their promises, or become albatrosses around the necks of the acquirers.
For shippers (BCOs and NVOs alike), it’s uncertainty about changing alliances and service patterns, and how to approach an upcoming contracting season in which neither we nor our carriers have full visibility to the actual services we are negotiating and contracting for.
For our industry (and many others), it’s uncertainty about what impact recent and upcoming political events, not just in the US, but also in other major countries, will have on sourcing patterns, and therefore on shipping volumes and service requirements.
It is obvious that winds of nationalism and isolationism are blowing strongly now, but what is not obvious is where it will lead us, as we seek to balance the needs of consumers with the realities of global trade.
Will globalization be walked back? Will trade deals change, and how will that impact us? Is 2017 going to be the year when near-sourcing, with its obvious impact on shipping volumes, moves from an interesting but often impractical idea, to an imperative for survival in the marketplace?
Those of us who work in global supply chains are not strangers to uncertainty. Indeed, we make our living managing it. And in 2017, we will certainly get to earn our keep.