In my opinion, the single most important change in 2017 will be the reduction in capacity within the worldwide ocean carriage industry. This supply reduction will lead to a series of increases in charges/pricing paid by the responsible shipper or consignee, whether they are a beneficial cargo owner or a 3PL. The reduction in capacity will happen as a result of ocean carriers failing or merging, causing ocean carrier management to increase prices at a rate much higher than inflation.
The reason given to the shipping public will be that the carriers are doing what they need to ensure their financial stability, as well as ensure the appropriate mix of efficient equipment moving forward. That's all good PR, but as I see it we will all be paying in the future for the carriers previously being undisciplined in their past pricing practices. Now they'll be undisciplined in recovering from those past practices, resulting in a rush to increase pricing in an effort to recover more now rather than over an elongated period, similar to the period it took to put themselves in the position they now find themselves in.
The second most important change will be an increase in the price of oil. As the Middle East fighting comes to an end in a variety of countries, OPEC will want to reassert itself as the pricing mechanism for oil. Their cupboards have been bare for too long, and we will see an aggressive shift in supply/pricing policy, resulting in the push for oil prices to increase. The oil powers realize they have a short window to capitalize on increased pricing before oil loses some of its luster to alternative energy sources.
The impact to those paying for cargo is fairly obvious — a double whammy — more for ocean rates, more for fuel surcharges. Watch how profitable the ocean carriage industry is within three years.