In 2016 the two most important changes I see impacting our part of the shipping industry are:
- The change away from the independent owner-operator model of doing business with respect to drayage to and from the port areas.
- The continued strength of the dollar.
The first change will eventually evolve into an increase in costs for shippers and consignees that are continuous port users, as the day of the less-expensive drayage pricing will gradually go away as the individual trucking companies are forced to grapple with their higher costs. As the Internal Revenue Service and various state governments continue their efforts to eliminate the model of the small independent businessman owner-operator, these drivers will be forced to join the companies using them — or competitors of companies that use them — raising the overall drayage costs for everyone involved. It will impact the larger companies first, but at some point, when the smaller trucking companies are reviewed for similar situations, the industry will evolve to an employee-based model. This may actually take more time than a single year, but the results, over time, will be higher rates and less independent businesses/businessmen involved in harbor drayage.
The continued strength of the dollar will force many companies to rethink the trend toward near-shoring as well as slow the recent increased exports from the U.S. Imports will increase, as a strong dollar means more buying power abroad, but that same strength will reduce our manufacturers’ abilities to sell abroad those products made in the U.S. Shipping companies whose main focus has been primarily exports from the U.S. will be in for leaner years, and will turn to imports or become good acquisition material.
Brad Dechter, President, DHX — Dependable Hawaiian Express, DGX — Dependable Global Express