The biggest challenges in air cargo for 2024 are continued volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity. While we’re seeing volume and demand recovering post-COVID, there’s still capacity volatility caused by myriad factors: wars; weather and climate; natural disasters, including multiple volcanic eruptions that could have more immediate impacts; labor disruptions and more. Despite the challenges of the COVID-19 pandemic, the industry came together after nearly shutting down completely, and we need to see continued collaboration as we navigate through continued challenges.
There is good reason to believe that 2024 may experience the most “normal” pre-pandemic trends, but there is still a lot of uncertainty with interest rates as high as they are and the global outlook for the economy facing high levels of uncertainty.
We are also witnessing a huge shift in mindset where sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) is concerned. It is the only renewable fuel source where costs are going up, which is not good for the industry. However, if you look deeper into the causes, there is some optimism as we’re seeing demand significantly increase far beyond the ability of producers to supply SAF. The fact that we’re seeing demand increase is positive, as long as we see global production increase.
SAF is becoming a more regular part of the conversation between airlines, forwarders and shippers, and we very well could be near the tipping point for SAF. For instance, we, at SEKO, are talking to clients about SAF weekly when previously it was more common in a quarterly or yearly business review, if at all. It’s the most realistic and pragmatic way for the air cargo industry to decarbonize in the shortest amount of time. We applaud airlines like United and Virgin that have taken the lead in this space.