In the year ahead, all eyes will be nervously focused on the global economy and signs of improvement from the slowest recovery since the 1930s. Carriers are dependent on continued growth in the main haul liner trades, which despite some revival in 2014 remained below the 10 percent annual growth rate prior to the recession.
Much is clearly riding on continued recovery. With revenue per TEU reported to have declined for the third year running and new capacity due to come on stream in the coming year, it’s difficult to paint an optimistic picture for 2015. And talk is of even bigger 20,000-TEU ship orders being placed.
What does this mean? It certainly begs questions about the sustainability of the present business model and whether it will precipitate a shake-out. For sure, it means continuing port congestion, delays and poor schedule reliability, which carriers admit is a combination of the mega-vessels, new alliance configurations and cost-cutting measures. As shippers seek to minimize the risks associated with an increasingly unreliable maritime supply chain, I believe there will be switch back to air cargo for certain products and increasing moves toward re-shoring and off-shoring of manufacturing.
In addition to business sustainability, I believe environmental sustainability will loom large in 2015. 2014 is set to be the warmest yet. Transport will therefore come under the spot light at this year’s climate change conference in Lima. While shipping accounts for only 3 percent of total global emissions, it is set to grow sharply. Unless progress is accelerated in the International Maritime Organization, the EU is likely to forge ahead with its own emissions monitoring, recording and verification proposals in 2015.
Chris Welsh, Secretary General, Global Shippers' Forum