As uncertainty looms over the U.S. economy, especially on the fiscal policy, everyone has taken a more pessimistic and negative view, especially given that 2012 is an election year where we are for the most part dealing with a lame-duck session of Congress.
I would prefer to focus on some of the more positive developments that could arise out of the economic slowdown and uncertainty.
First, perhaps the silver lining from the recent recession is the American consumer has been reducing debt and increasing savings to a rate not seen since the early 1990s. This deleveraging has been instrumental in building pent-up demand, so when the recovery finally gains traction it could rebound much faster than anyone is anticipating.
The key word, of course, is “when.” The U.S. economy remains the most resilient globally and will be the first to recover.
More specific to our industry, we are seeing larger, more efficient ships added to the global fleet, which is driving significant improvement in schedule reliability — somewhat enhanced by slow steaming. Carriers whose schedules were previously so tight there was no ability to recover from delays are discovering that on-time reliability is often more important than speed to many clients.
We also are seeing improvement in our industry in the overall environmental sustainability, which has become a major design requirement in new vessel building. An increasing rate of change on the regulatory front has raised the stakes of compliance throughout the supply chain. In fact, compliance and logistics are becoming synonymous. Technological innovation and leadership remain differentiating force in the market, and the ability to create customer value by optimizing the supply chain will define industry sustainability.
So, although 2012 has its share of uncertainty, it will be another year where the industry will have to find ways to work together collaboratively and creatively to bring stability and sustainability to a global supply chain that is critical to the global economy and recovery.