The trucking industry in 2012 will be largely shaped by two primary issues: the worsening shortage of qualified drivers and the outcome of legislative and regulatory policy developments regarding highway infrastructure funding and driver hours of service.
Studies project by the second and third quarters of 2012, the industry could be short between 200,000 and 300,000 drivers. The pain is felt most in the truckload sector, but less-than-truckload also faces hiring challenges, particularly in major cities.
Two main issues are at hand. First, the current driver population is aging with more and more nearing normal retirement age. At the same time, younger drivers are not joining the industry anywhere near the level needed to offset those leaving. In the long-haul truckload sector, drivers often are away for weeks at time. And until driver pay reaches a level that begins to compensate for quality of life issues, the industry will struggle to recruit and retain enough qualified drivers. The problem is less acute in LTL, where drivers tend to earn more and are able to be home every night. But this sector also has an aging workforce — and similar challenges recruiting younger workers. This will have an impact on shippers.
We also are at a critical juncture regarding regulatory and legislative policy.
Our nation’s transportation infrastructure is crumbling. Congress must pass new transportation funding legislation. We are on record supporting an increase in the diesel fuel tax, as long as that revenue is used exclusively for highway infrastructure repair and improvement. On the regulatory side, current proposals to change driver hours of service rules need to be thoroughly vetted. This proposal may shorten the time a driver can be on duty from 11 hours to 10, mandate specific break times and change other rules. At Con-way Truckload, we have estimated if the proposed rule changes went into effect today, our fleet would have to grow 4 to 5 percent to move the same amount of freight we move today. How does putting more trucks on the highways make them safer?