I believe we would be best suited viewing what 2010 holds for our industry and what we need to see happen to improve the state of our industry, rather than project potential changes.
2009 obviously was a tough year for the maritime world. It appears 2010 may see some improvement, with subtle spikes upward, but I am concerned it will be another long, arduous year. The major U.S. markets driving the maritime industry, be it the housing sector, the steel sector or others, do not seem to be making the recovery steps we would like to see. With this in mind, cargo volume and vessel counts will remain off. The recent wet weather throughout the U.S. has hampered the grain sector, but this may serve as a positive in 2010 because some of the 2009 grain movements may extend further than normal into new year.
What we truly need to see is a return of some form of normalcy to global trade in general. A re-establishment of normal trade between countries would provide our industry a better benchmark from which to plan and budget. In recent years, many maritime companies leveraged out in order to grow with the positive times. Those same companies are now forced to underutilize the assets they had planned to grow with, while still facing the burdens of servicing their leverage obligations.
Without some sort of normal global trade being re-established, I am concerned the major changes to the maritime industry in 2010 may include the disappearance of some historically well-established maritime companies and the mergers of others based solely on necessity.