Global air cargo growth over the last five years has been on a tear, averaging 9 to 10 percent year-over-year growth. The estimate for 2018 will likely be in the still uncommon 4 to 5 percent range, which is still double what the past 40 years averages have been. What is driving that level of growth?
Boeing says the global cargo fleet needs to add up to 2,480 freighters over the next 20 years. Today, only 1,870 of the 22,000 aircraft fleet are cargo planes, but they carry more than half the total air cargo traffic; the rest is carried below deck in passenger aircraft. The numbers have some variation, but Airbus expects that the global freighter fleet will grow by 1,072 aircraft to a total of 2,722 in-service freighters. This is a whopping increase of 65 percent during the next 20 years. What is driving this crazy growth? E-commerce, global e-commerce, and a consumer that wants “Free, 1-2 day shipping.”
But our airports are already congested; traditional freight gateways and large passenger-focused airports are reporting congestion and delays in recovering cargo shipments. How will the industry support this growth, and where will the new alternative gateways grow that will support the global volume while also managing to stay local for the last-mile delivery? Some solutions have been created: Mesa Gateway in Greater Phoenix, and Columbus Rickenbacker Airport are such examples.
In Mesa, a group known as Skybridge USA has created with the help of Mexican and US Customs a very unique process called the UCP (Unified Customs Processing) that allows freight to move from global sources to Mesa (with three parallel 10,500-foot runways), and get completely cleared by SAT-Mexican authorities for “domestic flight shipments” into Mexico. Using UCP, goods can be delivered via air cargo in 50 percent of the time it takes today.
At Rickenbacker, the airport authority along with its consulting teams have increased air cargo lift capacity from two 747 freighters per week to 19 freighters per week.