This commentary appeared in the print edition of the Jan. 6, 2020, Journal of Commerce Annual Review and Outlook.
Exports of US beef, pork, and lamb posted a solid performance in 2019, bolstered by exceptional beef demand in South Korea and Taiwan and strong growth in pork shipments to China, Oceania, and Latin America. But as the United States continues to make progress in reducing tariffs and other trade barriers, 2020 holds an even brighter outlook for the US red meat industry.
The new US–Japan trade agreement, which is under consideration by the Japanese Parliament and expected to enter into force in January, will level the playing field for US beef and pork by immediately reducing tariff rates to the same level as our major competitors. Japan is already the leading destination for US red meat, with exports in 2018 reaching $3.7 billion. But with the tariff relief achieved in this agreement, USMEF estimates that exports could reach $4 billion in 2020 and approach $5 billion by 2025.
The US has also reached an agreement with the European Union that will provide better access for US beef from non–hormone treated cattle. While US beef exports to Europe have held fairly steady in recent years, this agreement will help expand the presence of US beef in this very high-value market.
USMEF is hopeful that US–China trade talks will continue to progress, and that the end result will be the removal of retaliatory duties on US pork and beef. These duties, along with China’s other import restrictions, have given other pork-supplying countries a tremendous advantage over the US in capitalizing on China’s growing need for imported pork as it deals with African swine fever. China’s beef imports have also grown tremendously in recent years, but US beef holds only a small share of this extremely promising and rapidly expanding market.