Over the past couple years, the movement to “everything tech” and “disruption” all over has reached a fever pitch, as some in Silicon Valley feel they have all the answers (they don’t), and it often, if not usually, involves replacing people with some form of technology. Last we checked, technology is a tool.
Technology allows for companies to improve efficiency when applied properly. The blind faith in “Blockchain” as an answer to an unknown question has also been puzzling. Blockchain is not going to “crush the freight forwarding industry” as some initially proposed (without really understanding what Blockchain actually is.) It is a tool (distributed ledger) and can potentially reduce some pain points along the supply chain, but it doesn’t (and won’t) move freight.
As for moving freight, we expect autonomous vehicles to arrive well before driverless trucks and think it’s an important distinction. Trucks have been getting more bells and whistles the last couple of years to make them more self-driving, which should improve safety and make the driver’s job a little easier.
But given we have fully autonomous cargo planes flying freight that still require a pilot (or more), we are skeptical that 80,000 lb. vehicles will be cruising down the highway and around the streets, inches from drivers, cyclists, and others with nobody inside anytime soon. The best case would be (when the technology gets here) for long-haul truck-only lanes, but the US has underinvested in its road infrastructure for decades, so we don’t see that happening.
So, yes — trucks will continue to get more autonomous, but we don’t expect to see the labor savings initially touted, nor do we expect a large percentage of driverless trucks on the road 10 to 15 years from now.