This commentary appeared in the print edition of the Jan. 6, 2020, Journal of Commerce Annual Review and Outlook.
The marine industry is adapting to some of the most radical environmental challenges in its history. The ballast water management system (BWMS) requirements have led to expensive retrofits of existing ships and major design changes to new ships. The 2020 fuel oil sulfur limits are requiring the use of more expensive bunkers or installation of complex scrubbers. Unfortunately, this is the beginning of these processes, not the end.
The BWMS regulations established discharge standards that are attainable under current engineering processes. Those processes will continue to evolve. It should be expected that discharge standards will gradually ratchet up, in line with the inevitable improvements in engineering.
Atmospheric emissions from ships are greatly improving as the 2020 fuel oil sulfur limits take effect. The next aspect under consideration relates to carbon emissions. This issue cannot be solved by simply using cleaner oil; it will require the near-total elimination of carbon-based fuels for ship propulsion.
At some point in the not-too-distant future, both oil and LNG will be largely banned from shipping use. Ammonia and several other currently exotic fuels may be utilized in their stead, along with fuel cells. Batteries are already being used on some smaller vessels plying short routes. Improved technology will expand potential use to larger ships and longer routes. Wind energy, with kites or high-tech sails, may be used to reduce energy consumption. Experiments have been conducted utilizing solar energy on ships, but saltwater spray presents significant difficulties.
The bottom line is that the greening of the marine industry will continue apace. Ship speed and noise issues are waiting in the wings. The industry must continue to identify and implement practical approaches, rather than be the subject of change.