The growth of e-trade is already having a big impact on our industry, and this will continue this year. We will see a larger number of smaller shipments, and many new (and often inexperienced) shippers will emerge. The e-trade trend will lead to more direct shipments to consumers, and this changes the business dynamic for air freight.
E-commerce sales are expected to grow 45 percent by 2016, which presents an attractive business opportunity for all air cargo supply chain stakeholders, but does not come without its challenges. Mail parcel volume will continue to increase, and there will be an impact on traditional cargo models. Regulators, postal operators, and the industry at large will need to manage that change, especially in light of new advance data requirements for security. At the same time, the trend toward near-sourcing is leading manufacturers as well as e-tailers such as Amazon away from reliance on long supply chains, so we will see a growth in inter-regional movement, within Latin America or within Asia, for example.
In 2015, I hope we will see industry embracing collaboration more strongly, especially the expansion of collaboration between Customs and civil aviation regulators. This needs to be across all aspects of security, including air cargo screening, but also needs to include the mutual recognition of processes and procedures in a secure supply chain. Beyond mutual recognition of AEO and C-TPAT status, sharing the certification process with the AVSEC authorities would greatly improve efficiency and reduce costs.
Collaboration is key so that we can move toward e-environment on forms as well. We are heartened by the closer cooperation between the World Customs Organization and the International Civil Aviation Organization on such issues as advance data, and we need to encourage more collaboration, especially at the "country-to-country" level.
Doug Brittin, Secretary General, The International Air Cargo Association