I see no startling developments this year, but rather a continuing evolution of three themes increasingly impacting transportation networks … consolidation of capacity, environmental considerations, and technology.
The need for cost control through economies of scale continues to push carriers into choosing whether to invest huge amounts of capital, merge with other operators, or enter into some variation of joint service agreement. While actual mergers continue on a somewhat slow pace, joint service options have increased dramatically, and now include not just ships, but also terminal networks and even chassis assets. I recall a time not that long ago when The Journal of Commerce published the Top 100 Container Operators, a list that now is limited to only 40 such carriers, and most of those are committed to joint service arrangements.
The external push to adopt increasingly stringent environmental controls regarding vessel airborne emissions, waterborne discharges, and marine life activity zones continues to force operators to search for new solutions for compliance with these regulations, and will almost certainly result in the widespread electrification of land-based operations, and the usage of LNG to power vessels in the near future.
The almost exponential increase in technological capacity has, and will continue to have, a dramatic impact on the industry. Such developments as high-output LNG engines, ballast water treatment systems, “virtual” aids to navigation, on-line booking systems, enhanced mobile communication capability, and asset-sharing software will all combine to help propel our traditional industry into a future of maximized asset performance.
The art of calculus measures the rate at which change occurs. That rate is becoming increasingly fast. For thousands of years, shipping remained virtually unchanged. Malcom McLean, who gave us the box that changed the world less than 60 years ago, would hardly recognize today’s industry.
Edward J. Kelly, Executive Director, Maritime Association of the Port of New York and New Jersey