While 2008 should certainly go down as the “annus horribilis” for the maritime industry in general, I expect a more severe reprise in 2009. The just-declared yearlong recession will no doubt continue unabated into early 2010, dragging the shipping sector and all who depend on it down with it.
To underscore the point, China recently declared that its competitive position is shrinking as sales sink (and in the wake of one melamine or contamination scare after the other), a sorry Christmas season has just concluded, global consumer and thus production markets continue their collapse, and the world’s largest economy continues to work its way through one economic crisis after the other with no clear end in sight. I fully expect at least one major carrier, numerous smaller forwarders and NVOCCs, and possibly a port or two to go under as revenues decline.
Is there a bright side to all of this with the advent of our new administration? Not likely.
The Democrats’ promised Card-Check Program will undermine any economic restructuring, should it pass (we have to hope for failure); and a new economic team has already declared war on the working middle class the engine of recovery.
On the government front, President-elect Obama will have to confront 100 percent inspection of air and ocean cargo and declare victory and, one hopes, retreat. We have been promised a decline in government outsourcing bad news for those who do work for the government but an unlikely near-term outcome given economic constraints.
There will be a renewed effort to placate Jones Act acolytes with an emphasis on coastal shipping. And environmentalists will push programs aimed at green shipping slower sailing and better fuels, for example and here I both rest and applaud their future efforts.