Let me first say that it is always tricky to make these kinds of forecasts. Who could have predicted the humanitarian crisis in Ukraine just one year ago or the present energy crisis? But let’s give it try.
Taken for granted that the economy is not cooling down much, the labor market will be a considerable challenge. We are facing a considerable lack of personnel in Europe — the lack of drivers is only one example, but the same applies for warehouse workers. The working population as a whole is aging in the EU, but specifically in these crucial jobs in the supply chain. The challenge would be to make these professions more appealing to the younger generation. Additionally, it would be very important to work to a much better gender balance in the profession.
At the same time, it is important to reduce the labor intensity of a logistical operation. One way to do this is in using multi-modality; another way could be making transport operations more efficient by better collaboration in the supply chain and reuse of data. This would require, for instance, a different mentality of supply chain partners. Also taking sustainability challenges into account, we could question if concepts such as just-in-time will still be feasible in the long run.
On a more positive note, you could also say that, in the end, the shortage of human resources could end up with a supply chain that is more agile and sustainable.
Data makes it possible to ensure better planning of a sustainable supply chain. A too-often-used sentence is that data are the oil of the future. This sentence is used with a cause — at the moment, we still see that all the available data are not used in the most efficient way.
Take maritime transport, for example: if shippers are asked what they lack most, one of the most popular answers is information. If vessels are not calling at a foreseen port or are delayed, information could help to minimize the negative impact of the delay. Importers can take care for reorganizing the inland shipping operation or alert the end-customer.
Why is this information not delivered, you could ask? Standards are often the reason. For instance, a uniform definition of the estimated time of arrival (ETA) is not available, or the information is not landing on the desk of the recipient of the container, but at that of a logistical service provider. In some cases, the cargo owner is not aware that the information is available (on the carrier’s website, for example).
Better standards, digitization, and better collaboration in the supply chain are key in improving this situation. With the use of artificial intelligence (AI), better-informed forecasts can be provided. The use of these tools results in a more reliable supply chain.