It is always a perilous undertaking to predict what the coming year will bring. In fact, it’s best to keep a low profile because if a copy of this magazine surfaces a year from now, there will certainly be a difference between my prediction and reality.
Shippers have been living from crisis to crisis in recent years. The credit crunch, COVID-19 pandemic and war in Ukraine followed in rapid succession. We have seen that multiple sourcing is safer. So, I expect that both in regulation and daily practice, the pursuit of strategic autonomy is going to increase. For shippers, that’s actually building resilience into the supply chain.
Global geopolitical tensions are leading to commodity supply chains increasingly being used as a weapon. Measures such as China’s export ban on germanium are becoming more and more commonplace. Regrettably, I fear that sanctions will continue to pop up.
Next year the special arrangement for competition in container liner shipping (CBER) will expire in April. The Commission recently came up with the rather surprising decision not to extend the measures. This paves the way for more market forces. Old textbooks on economics say that more competition in principle leads to better service. So perhaps ship owners might start differentiating their services. More services, such as a guarantee that your cargo comes along at an additional cost, could very well happen.
In 2023, we saw the first opportunity for barges to sail on Belgian inland waterways without a captain, autonomous but monitored at a distance. This possibility could be extended to other member states and perhaps this development will motivate further development of autonomous driving on freeways. This is an area where we have been in danger of getting a bit bogged down in recent years.
Finally, there are new elections for the European Parliament next year. At least that we know for sure. But I’m certainly not going to make any predictions about the outcome.