Rate stability for the ocean container industry faces a bleak future in 2009. Ocean freight rates are under extreme pressure on most routes as cargo demand falters.
At the same time, many large container ships are due to be delivered. For the first time that I can remember, carriers will have to deal with a global recession and a significant increase in supply at the same time.
How carriers decide to manage their capacity over the course of 2009 will be the key ingredient to achieve any sort of rate stability. In my opinion, if carriers cannot effectively manage their capacity to keep it within range of cargo demand, we will see significant freight rate reductions in nearly every trade lane worldwide.
The other important change that ocean carriers must address is rate surcharge simplification. There are more than 100 acronyms for ocean carrier surcharges.
Each carrier seems to have its own language when it comes to addressing these surcharges. Importers and exporters are facing additional challenges of their own in 2009, and they will be much less patient about translating, much less keeping track of ocean carrier surcharges.
I am pleased to see a few ocean carriers begin to address this issue, but it is going to take stronger efforts by all carriers to simplify something that is out of control.