One of the most remarkable things about 2011 is that we can’t forecast anything remarkable. Uncertainty about the strength of the market has prevailed for some time and I expect this to continue. Although everyone seems to agree conditions are improving, it’s difficult to forecast a continuous upward trend.
Expectations for cargo flows are predicated on an increasing number of front-end engineering projects and bids, but actual cargo flows remain in question. Expectations vary in different trade routes, with some markets likely to produce good cargo flows earlier than others. The big question, however, is: When will there be sustained cargo flows to support an increasing supply of new tonnage in the multipurpose/heavy-lift segment?
It would seem this change — or rather, the lack of it — would precipitate activity in the multipurpose/heavy-lift sector. For the most part, this hasn’t happened, and it’s that lack of adaptation to the market that will foretell change. The market will force change in several ways, chief among them, financial and service demands by the industry. The industry’s evolution is bringing about larger, more global, more transparent and financially sound enterprises.
In 2011 and beyond, companies must be big enough to meet the market’s demands and sound enough to carry out the adaptability the market requires.