Most of the world is relieved to have 2020 in their rear-view mirror. Politics, lives lost and disrupted from the pandemic, hospitalization crises, and a generational economic meltdown dominated headlines. Among all of those challenges, one previously underappreciated, vital American strength shone through, with some of its catchphrases being used at kitchen tables and on network news. Our nation’s incredibly resilient, increasingly customized, and complex supply chains literally kept us fed and kept lifesaving supplies rolling through it all. From the folks who strategically design and implement technological processes to the frontline truck drivers and warehouse workers, our supply chain and logistics heroes deserve a round of applause. America and much of the world have seen supply chains battle-tested in ways many of us thought were previously unimaginable.
In contemplating 2020’s epilogue, one might try to envision the opportunities for 2021: the hopes for a quick economic turnaround and return to a relatively normal lifestyle. But those hopes hinge entirely on how successful America can be in two areas: our respect for science, including preventative social distancing guidelines, and the distribution of vaccine and therapeutics. The latter will stress-test our supply chain once again, and in novel ways. Think: cold chain transport at –80° Celsius to every inch of the planet. The sooner we solve the COVID-19 puzzle, the sooner the global economy gets back fully online, and the sooner millions of out-of-work Americans get back to work. Those of us in the supply chain will have a front row seat for all of it.
As a nation, the United States has always counted on truck drivers to be on the front lines of natural disasters, and they have never failed to show up. However, the risks truckers confronted in 2020, and continue to face, is nothing short of heroic. When New York City was considered a hotbed of infection, and we were far less certain about how the virus spread, truckers rallied to bring life-saving supplies to those in need. When Pennsylvania unwisely made the short-lived decision to shut down rest stops, allowing no respite from the road, truckers didn’t let that deter them from delivering their shipments.
Looking to 2021, the year could go at least one of two ways. If every single American does what it takes to curtail COVID-19 infections, we have a great chance to rebound strongly in 2021. If we as Americans direct our efforts toward competing on the world stage in reducing transmissions, seeking to be among the best countries in controlling transmission and keeping the economy open, while we distribute the vaccines effectively, we could see a sharp V economic recovery.
Alternately, if we continue allowing the virus to freely wash over the population, and we don’t socially distance, our hospitals and our morgues will be overrun. People will die from both COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 related illnesses who require surgeries and hospitalizations, and more states may need to shut down greater parts of their economies. As of late November 2020, morgues are beginning to be overrun. In early 2020, our economy was strong after a 10-year record run. Today, our economy is much more fragile, with millions of jobless Americans. Nobody wants to see a recession in 2021. The choice is clear, and it’s up to us. I hope and believe that we are up to the challenge.
Frontline workers and the most at-risk communities should see vaccinations in December into January, with additional populations beginning to be vaccinated in larger quantities as the first quarter proceeds. Production should ramp up quickly, and we’ll need all of it and all makes of safe vaccines. Operation Warp Speed leaders and those of us involved in vaccine distribution expect vaccines to reach the majority of Americans by mid-to-late second quarter into third quarter. These are best guesses, and we all hope it’s sooner.
One thing is certain — we should begin preparing for regular uncertainty. Why? It’s obvious. The freight market shifted more often in the past decade than ever before. In the past 40 years, there have been five capacity crises, four of them in the last six years. Nobody is big enough to control a $1T U.S. freight market, but each of us should better prepare our organizations for today’s rapidly shifting marketplace. Smart shippers are reexamining budgets, embracing flexibility, and using brokers strategically, to prepare for each twist and turn.
Vaccines will tighten historically tight reefer capacity, as capacity is siphoned from cold chains and shifted to serve this extraordinary humanitarian effort. The World Health Organization has estimated that more than 50 percent of vaccines may lose their efficacy globally every year due to temperature control, logistics, or shipment-related issues. Hopefully, the American supply chain will be far more effective than that, but developing countries will have major challenges. Expect much more attention paid to those of us in supply chain management in 2021 as the vaccine challenges and successes are made public.
What remains to be seen is how many trucking companies and owner-operators are able to weather all of these storms, in order to assist in the nation’s recovery. In just the last 6 months of 2020, we lost nearly 150,000 drivers from the smallest American fleets. We need trucking to be vibrant if we wish to see that V-shaped recovery materialize. That’ll require shippers to utilize brokers as regular, peer-to-peer partners with their best core carriers, to prop up those smaller fleets. If our past is any indicator, we’ve got a hardy stock of drivers willing to put it all on the line to ensure America keeps moving. And we can’t wait to be able to give them a high five at close range when this is all over.