This commentary appeared in the print edition of the Jan. 6, 2020, Journal of Commerce Annual Review and Outlook.
According to the International Chamber of Shipping, there are an estimated 1.65 million seafarers serving aboard ships in international trade, of which 774,000 are officers and 873,500 are unlicensed personnel. The ICS estimates that the overall demand for seafarers is approximately 1.5 million, a figure that is comprised of 790,500 officers and 754,500 unlicensed mariners. On a global level, there is currently a shortage of roughly 16,500 officers and a surplus of about 119,000 unlicensed personnel.
Despite a decline in the global merchant vessel fleet growth rate in recent years and the current excess of ship cargo capacity, the growth of world trade is expected to increase demand for qualified mariners. Some forecasts suggest that manning requirements could double between now and 2040.
What effect will the development of autonomous ships and new vessel automation technologies have on the need for skilled seafarers? Although the deployment of unmanned ships will obviously displace the mariners who would otherwise sail aboard those vessels, this will be partially offset by a rise in the number of shoreside control personnel and others needed to manage the operations of autonomous ships. In addition, the share of the fleet consisting of autonomous ships is likely to increase slowly over time, given the regulatory, financial, and other impediments to the utilization of such vessels. A recent study by the IMO World Maritime University predicts that the introduction of autonomous ships will reduce the need for merchant mariners by 22 percent relative to baseline requirements from 2020 to 2040, but that overall demand will still increase.
Thus, the challenges of recruiting and retaining motivated and qualified vessel personnel will continue. Making a career at sea as attractive as possible and assisting seafarers with the costs and time requirements associated with training and credential maintenance will be central to success.