The recent terror attacks will have a major impact on the world and international shipping. Many commentators have said that our two greatest threats are terrorism and climate change. I, and others, have long held the belief that the two are intertwined, particularly given that many of our adversaries are funded by petro-dollars.
Container shipping will be called upon to continue to develop more energy efficiencies and security against terror. Certain segments of U.S.-flag shipping will see increased volumes in aid-related cargo directed toward combatting global instability, an incubator of terror breeding. In the coming year and beyond, the United States will send more food and weapons to areas of the world where a “guns and butter” approach is needed.
The shipping lines that have strong U.S.-flag operations will become even more attractive in terms of acquisition and consolidation.
Consolidation of ocean carriers is, of course, to be a trend, but I see other trends in consolidation: asset-heavy and asset-light organizations becoming one; chassis moving more and more to grey pools (could there be a consolidation among chassis leasing companies in the near future?); and even grey pools for containers have been discussed. These new combinations are often led by innovative thinkers new to the industry. Financiers, technologists and entrepreneurs will continue to enter the transportation sector and will continue to recruit fresh, new talent with good ideas.