Marianne Rowden, President and CEO, American Association of Exporters and Importers

https://www.aaei.org
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Marianne Rowden

It is difficult to envision how a trade deal between the US and China can overcome the primary drivers of tension — China’s state-directed economy (e.g., Made in China 2025 plan with rampant theft of US intellectual property including forced technology transfers) and its aggressive foreign policy (e.g., One Belt One Road plan, militarization of islands in the South China Sea).

The post-World War II international system lasted for 70 years because the US absorbed all the costs of the international system (i.e., global security, financial, and trading system), which is no longer economically or politically sustainable. The World Trade Organization has been a stagnant organization because it was designed to settle technical disputes based on multilateral trade rules and thus cannot bridge fundamental economic differences.

As a result, the era of trade liberalization may be over despite the trade community’s best efforts to stop protectionism and fragmentation.

If the post-WWII system is falling apart, the big question is what comes next? History does not provide any comfort as the most likely scenario is a return great power rivalry in a balance of power system, which tends to be unstable and often leads to war.