This commentary appeared in the print edition of the Jan. 6, 2020, Journal of Commerce Annual Review and Outlook.
The best phrase to describe the rapid changes in international trade is “velocity acceleration,” as we are facing three trends. First, we are moving from a period of trade liberalization to trade restrictions based on geopolitical rivalry. Second, trade restrictions will force the trade community to develop production shifting strategies. Third, myriad technologies will be applied to trade issues — compliance, security, safety, IPR protection — beyond just demonstrations and will scale across businesses and industries.
In some cases, the deployment of technologies will result in fewer jobs for people, particularly in warehousing and logistics. In other cases, companies using a combination of technologies for trade compliance can move humans into strategic planning roles that require creativity and other skill sets not easily automated. Such a shift will require a new skill set and training for trade professionals, and companies that make those investments in people will yield the best results.
This period of “velocity acceleration” does not have to be “Automate or Perish 2.0” if companies are thoughtful in how they turn trade compliance and transportation from cost centers into competitive advantages. History is full of examples where companies were able to use people and technology to not only survive, but thrive, in a period of rapid change.