2018 will be the year of critical mass and speed. Online sales in the 2017 holiday season were expected to eclipse brick-and-mortar. Such a milestone will signify that shift in economic trends has hit critical mass. However, what will be distinctive in 2018 is the speed at which disruption to business models, supply chains, and global trade occurs.
While most attention has been focused on the applications of blockchain technology and machine learning, critical mass will be pushed by experimentation with various emerging technologies by the private sector and governments alike. This may seem like déjà vu of the early 1990s when start-up companies reinvented the supply chain, resulting in the dotcom bubble of 2000, but this time is different. Companies are seeking to maximize the use of their data by taking advantage of computing power now broadly available through the cloud. Competition will accelerate experimentation with new technologies. While there will certainly be failures, companies are more disciplined to develop a business model with a return on investment for deploying these technologies.
What will be interesting to watch is how the government approaches the use of these new technologies. As we end a 30-year cycle of trade liberalization and government procurement of large information technology systems, the results are mixed as we struggle to complete functionality in the Automated Commercial Environment (ACE) and simply cannot keep up with the needs of the global economy. Governments regulate a trade community of thousands today, but perhaps millions tomorrow, and cumbersome government procurement is not up to this challenge.
Therefore, it is time to revisit the question that was posed to the trade community after September 11: What is the risk that we are trying to mitigate?