The global economy and U.S. domestic politics will be the keys to understanding and predicting the dynamics of the maritime industry this year.
Although any economic recovery in the U.S. is dependent on such domestic factors as resurgence in the homebuilding industry, stabilization and liquidity in the financial sector, and sustained increased confidence of consumers, the global economy will be a determinative factor in the growth of the maritime industry.
With currency exchange rates driving trade among international partners, the Federal Reserve’s decision to inject $600 billion into the domestic economy might prove beneficial for U.S. exports, but is likely to suppress U.S. imports. The net effect on U.S. ports isn’t clear, and it will likely be well into June before we can make this call.
The 2010 midterm congressional election clearly will have an impact on our industry. How the change of political fortunes plays out remains to be seen, but one thing is certain: The 2012 presidential campaign began at 12:01 a.m. on Nov. 3, 2010.
Expect both parties to look for common goals on some issues, and fair trade agreements with Panama, Colombia and South Korea might fit that bill. This will benefit the maritime industry.
Deficit hawks all will look for cuts in discretionary spending. If they target dredging spending, it will be bad for the port industry. If they take the principled position to dedicate the Harbor Maintenance Trust Fund for its intended purposes, without the shell game, it will be good for the port industry.
To the extent the new Congress can streamline federal regulatory permitting regimes, much-needed port and inland waterway projects would move forward in a more timely and cost-effective way. Such action would benefit the deep-sea and inland waterway transportation systems.