The crystal ball for 2009 is murky. It will be a difficult, unpredictable year. The financial crisis of 2008 was not expected. Full recovery is in the distant future.
In 2009, the economy will remain weak and uncertain. Bankruptcies, mergers and restructuring will headline the news. Demand for goods and services have declined, and the effect is rumbling through industry. Reductions in transportation capacity will continue.
The Defense Department logistics workload should be similar to 2008. With a more stable government, improved security and improved conditions for the U.S. military in Iraq, the operational tempo will decline, reducing the requirement for supplies and provide an opportunity to redeploy forces. Any decrease in the movement of supplies into Iraq will be offset by increased requirements to redeploy forces. Force levels and operations in Afghanistan are likely to increase. Requirements for commercial sealift and airlift should be about the same as 2008. Rapid redeployment of forces from Iraq could increase the requirement for strategic lift. Companies providing end-to-end capability for the Defense Department should have significant opportunities sustaining and redeploying forces from Iraq and moving additional forces and materiel into Afghanistan.
Domestically, the focus will be on the economy and the need for an economic recovery. We need a national framework for infrastructure renewal. Our nation’s infrastructure has been declining for more than a decade. Efforts will be made in 2009 to reverse this trend. Actions will start by finding solutions and programs to fuel the economic engine. These may include the recently authorized Marine Highway initiative, the nation’s power generation and distribution system, the massive upgrade/replacement of municipal utilities, and reauthorization of the Highway Bill. As Google Chief Executive Eric Schmidt says, “Infrastructure is the foundation upon which wealth is created.” Infrastructure repair will be one of the key tools to get Americans working and ignite our economy.