None of the issues I predicted would be addressed in 2010 were resolved. So much for my reputation as a prognosticator.
As a result, however, they are still around for 2011 and are so important we will have little choice but to focus on them at some point. It is axiomatic in government, as in life, the longer you wait to fix something, the fewer choices you have and the more expensive they are. That is true of global economic issues as much as anything else.
Foremost among them is the development of a trade policy. The administration has only recently begun to grapple with trade issues, entering into the Trans-Pacific Partnership negotiations and trying to get the Doha Round of multilateral trade negotiations moving. Perhaps also, finally, 2011 will feature congressional approval of the long-pending free trade agreements with Colombia, Panama and Korea.
An area where the administration has led but Congress has dropped the ball is climate change. This is a classic “global commons” issue that can only be solved if all countries address it together. Congress has set a poor example in this area, but the stakes are sufficiently high for all of us that it should be pressed to try again.
Another issue still lurking is the oft-postponed debate over international tax policy. The Obama administration has tried to make a whipping boy out of multinational corporations. This is a dangerous approach – if tax rules constrain the ability of U.S. companies to participate in growing overseas markets, their foreign competitors will have a permanent advantage.
Last year, U.S. business lost a skirmish on this issue, but the larger battle over international tax policy awaits us next year.