In 2008, we learned — again — that the business school textbooks were right: the macro-economy does indeed move up and down in cycles. We all were enjoying such an exhilarating, long-term ride on the upside that few, if any, were expecting such a precipitous fall from economic grace. In 2009, we will be tested in ways we have not contemplated in quite some time as nations, companies, labor, markets and supply chains adjust to the depressing realities of recession economics. Our new president and the 111th Congress certainly will be tested on their abilities to lead a broad-based recovery, together with our trade partners, in a new “Coalition of the get it done right, or else!”
While this economic meltdown has had and will continue to have tragic consequences for many, it will add fuel to the freight transportation industry’s efforts to be heard on the imperatives for greatly expanded investments in transportation infrastructure. Our economic policy leaders will see such expenditures as a much-needed stimulus, a shot in the arm to create and sustain jobs. While writing checks for potentially hundreds of millions of dollars to our state highway authorities is not a substitute for the rational, long-term national freight transportation policy we are calling for (along with a host of others), let’s take advantage of the opportunity to work with them to make sure some of that money goes to our highest priority “last-mile” and intermodal connector projects.
The big drivers of the freight markets in recent years have not gone away. New security requirements (such as 10+2 and airfreight inspections), fuel market volatility, and environmental mandates will be joined by shrunken real income and reduced global demand to put even more pressure on supply-chain performance. The flexibility of these delivery systems will be stressed to the maximum. A perfectly acceptable strategic goal for 2009 would seem to be aiming to survive until 2010.