Norton Lilly International

https://www.nortonlilly.com
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H.W. Thurber III

More than at any other time in the past, the word “change” is involved in many and all aspects of our lives. We have a new president, we have a world in economic turmoil and what at best could be a very cloudy crystal ball with which to look at the coming year. It would be easy to take the pessimistic view and decide that there is no future in shipping and at the very best all we can hope to do is hunker down and ride out these challenging times.

But we look at the present situation, just as I believe the new president is looking at his job, as an opportunity. The status quo clearly will not work, but for those who are innovative and willing to work hard, 2009 still has opportunities. It is a difficult time to plan — for proof, look at the volatile charter market, where rates have declined dramatically over the past six months, particularly in the dry cargo market. But I believe if one stays alert and looks at the situation with a positive outlook, opportunities will arise out of this turmoil.

This time last year, everyone was talking about how high oil prices would rise. They did, indeed, rise substantially, but now oil is going for under $60 a barrel. So the driving force from a year ago has quickly changed. The next big change could be with the dollar, whose decline has had a dramatic impact on exports. That should change the other way soon.

It will be interesting to see what changes are reflected in this space this time next year.