As we look back at the past year, it’s easy to point to significant disruptions in global trade and transportation. We’ve witnessed both rapid consolidation in the shipping liner industry, as well as an administration promoting protectionist trading policies. Additionally, all major shipping sectors have witnessed a significant downturn in industry economics associated with overcapacity. Most economists forecast global trade in the next year to improve slightly, but to remain below historical trends.
In North Carolina, we remain bullish on international seaborne trade in our region. There are three primary factors we see contributing to this. First, population demographic shifts in the United States continue to move to the southeastern portion of the country. Second, the longer-term effects of the expanded Panama Canal will continue to shift supply chains to the East Coast. And third, terminal and inland road and rail capacity in the northeastern region of the country is limited, and migration to available capacity in the Southeast is expected.
I continue to hear from major shipping lines that they’re pursuing a diversification strategy when selecting port calls on the Atlantic Coast. There is no one dominant gateway like Southern California for terminal capacity and inland connections, therefore, to guard against congestion and provide supply chain alternatives to their customers, progressive steamship lines are diversifying their East Coast port selections.
With 30 years in this industry, I have seen ups and downs in every aspect of international commerce. The one common factor I’ve experienced is that we’re in an industry that continually finds efficiency and improved economics. The long-term winners will be the players who provide a fast and cost-effective service in the global supply chain — and make capital decisions in both human and infrastructure development that support these tenets for long-term success.