Paul F. Richardson Associates

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Paul F. Richardson

A year ago, it was easy to predict that 2009 would be a devastating year with the tremendous global financial downturn affecting every segment of our industry with particularly harmful consequences for the ocean carriers.

We enter 2010 in the throes of this financial nightmare.

When will we come out of this devastating period?

The answer quite simply is this: when the consumer public has enough confidence to start purchasing consumer goods.

In any case, the recovery will be slow, much slower than most people realize.

Fortunately, the new ILA Master Contract extension has been ratified, promising a couple years of labor peace at an extremely high cost to port operators and ocean carriers.

Port competition will be severe.

Carrier competition will be severe because of overcapacity problems and some carriers’ quest for increased market share.

This, in turn, will continue downward pressure on rates.

New larger ships will continue to come on stream, keeping capacity high, and ports will continue to prepare for the arrival of these giant ships.

Rate stability globally continues to be a distant goal.

Bottom line: 2010 will be another challenging year for our industry. Hopefully, positive progress can be made through a common awareness of our situation.