Nine months after President Obama outlined an ambitious 2014 U.S. trade agenda, the signals are mixed for U.S. trade policy. Movement in the right direction would help deliver a lasting U.S. recovery, while lifting Europe and other markets out of the doldrums. Go in the wrong direction, and we could lapse back into a protectionist crouch.
On the positive side, in November, India agreed to unblock implementation of the World Trade Organization’s Trade Facilitation Agreement, a landmark pact to remove administrative and customs barriers to cross-border trade. Once implemented, the TFA is expected to spur global economic growth and create some 21 million new jobs — 18 million in developing countries — while adding $1 trillion to global GDP.
At the same time, the path forward for Trade Promotion Authority appears clearer, with both the Obama administration and leaders on Capitol Hill saying trade could be an area of bipartisan progress in the new Congress. Fully three-quarters of Americans surveyed say Congress should act to update and pass TPA legislation.
But there are troubling signs that key trade pacts with Asia and Europe may face a tougher road than expected. Unfounded anxiety, some might say hysteria, has sprung up in Europe over certain aspects of the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, such as strong investor-state dispute settlement provisions.
In addition, several countries, including the United States, are threatening to carve out certain sensitive areas from liberalization commitments under the Trans-Pacific Partnership.
We in the business community must help our political leaders summon the courage to stand up for an ambitious approach to the TPP and TTIP negotiations, and move forward — after lengthy delays — on Trade Promotion Authority. The global recovery depends on it.
Peter M. Robinson, President and CEO, U.S. Council for International Business