When the final results are in, U.S. beef and pork exports will set new records in 2014, with combined export value expected to approach $13.5 billion. This was achieved despite significant headwinds, including increased competition, record-high meat prices, declining cattle and hog slaughter numbers and a U.S. dollar that strengthened dramatically in the second half of the year. But international demand for U.S. beef and pork has proved very resilient, and export value continues to grow.
While these same obstacles will create a challenging environment in 2015, we expect additional beef export growth of up to 2 percent in volume (to 1.19 million metric tons) and 6 percent in value (to $7 billion). Pork exports are projected to increase as much as 5 percent in volume (to 2.34 million metric tons) and 6 percent in value (to $7.1 billion).
One factor that could soon impact global meat trade is the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Much of the recent focus of TPP negotiations has centered on the degree to which Japan will ease restrictions on pork and beef imports from TPP trading partners, including the United States, Australia, New Zealand and Canada. While the timeline for ratification and implementation of the TPP is uncertain, we expect to see the final terms of the agreement take shape over the next few months. The TPP could also increase opportunities for U.S. pork and beef in Vietnam and Malaysia.
U.S. trade officials also continue to seek access for U.S. beef in mainland China — a market that has been closed since December 2003. Beef demand in China has surged over the past two years, with imports exceeding $1.3 billion in 2013 and increasing another 14 percent through the first three quarters of 2014.
Philip M. Seng, President and CEO, U.S. Meat Export Federation