After a challenging year in 2015, US beef and pork exports rebounded in 2016 and enter 2017 on a positive trajectory. It is vital that the US meat industry maintains this momentum at a time when both beef and pork production are increasing. While moving these larger supplies presents a challenge, higher production has enhanced the global competitiveness of US meat.
We project 2016 beef exports to reach 1.14 million metric tons, up 7 percent from 2015. Especially noteworthy is the strong rebound in higher-value chilled (never frozen) beef shipments to key Asian markets. Chilled exports increased 40 percent to Japan, 38 percent to South Korea, and 11 percent to Taiwan. In 2017, we project further growth in total beef exports of 5 percent (to 1.2 million metric tons). In September, China announced its intention to end a 13-year ban on imports of US beef, but shipments remain on hold as the US and Chinese governments negotiate specific export requirements. These terms will determine the level of our 2017 beef exports to China, and we expect the initial impact to be modest.
Pork exports are projected to finish 2016 at 2.25 million metric tons, up 5 percent year-over-year. First-half growth was driven primarily by surging demand in China, but later in the year, exports improved to other key markets such as Mexico, Japan and Korea. Pork shipments to China slowed in the second half, and this trend will likely continue in 2017, as China’s domestic pork production rebounds. But even with demand in China moderating, we project further pork export growth of 4 percent (to 2.34 million metric tons) in 2017.