After posting record-high values in 2014, U.S. beef and pork exports took a step back this year because of a number of headwinds. The West Coast port labor impasse hit the meat industry hard in the first quarter, and momentum proved difficult to sustain in 2015 because of the very strong U.S. dollar, persistent market access challenges and sluggish global demand.
The U.S. Meat Export Federation expects 2016 to be another challenging year, but we look for exports to rebound. USMEF projects beef export growth of 8 percent in volume (to 1.16 million metric tons) and 7 percent in value (to more than $7 billion). Pork exports are projected to increase 5 percent in volume (to 2.2 million metric tons) and 3 percent in value (to $5.8 billion).
Though it won’t be implemented in time to impact 2016 exports, the Trans-Pacific Partnership offers significant opportunities for the U.S. meat industry. U.S. beef already faces a tariff disadvantage in Japan because of the Japan-Australia Economic Partnership Agreement. U.S. pork could potentially face a similar fate relative to its largest competitor, as Japan and the EU are in the late stages of free trade agreement negotiations. So while TPP may not give the U.S. a “leg up” in Japan, its ratification is essential if we are to regain a level playing field.
Another key factor for meat export growth is improving our access to China, which has been closed to U.S. beef since 2003. U.S. pork has limited access to China, but its pork import requirements are rather onerous. With several plants recently being reinstated for export to China, the U.S. pork industry is better positioned to serve this market in 2016.