The European transport market is under pressure because of sharply falling demand. For 2009, we anticipate container volumes will remain at 2008 levels, with the second half of the year slowly making up for losses in the first half compared to 2008. However, if we look at the European container market in long-term perspective, the growth trend seems intact.
In 2006 and 2007, we enjoyed growth rates well above the long-term growth line; while in 2008 we fell below. I am confident that after 2009 we will catch up again with the long-term growth trend as globalization continues.
European hub ports continue to increase their handling capacities, and I don’t see problems with port congestion for the coming years. Moreover, terminals have made considerable efforts to improve their hinterland connections.
The current downswing creates overcapacities in the transport market and thus puts pressure not only on shipping rates but also on hinterland transport rates. I expect a significant number of smaller players, especially in the trucking sector, will not survive even more as road tolls increase further and truckers will have trouble passing on additional costs to customers.
The railway market will further profit from the continuing discussion on sustainable and ecological transport chains. In addition, the ongoing liberalization of the European railway sector creates a favorable environment for competition and more efficient transport organization. However, to promote intermodal railroad, it is indispensable to build and modernize more intermodal terminals in the hinterland of the seaports, especially in central and eastern Europe.