The biggest challenge in 2012 will be adapting as the liner industry attempts to match container demand with supply at competitive and remunerative rate levels.
Global oversupply is keeping rates extremely low, causing financial distress in the industry. Delivery of new ultra-large container ships isn’t helping. This will yield continued rate instability, with trade lanes, including the trans-Pacific, likely to be impacted.
While there has been talk of carrier consolidation in recent years, the moment may be upon us. If so, this will have implications for ports because of the complex web of exclusive terminal facilities. It may lead to a round of reverse musical chairs in the U.S., where there could be more chairs than music. One way or another, change is inevitable if carriers’ margins continue to erode.
President Obama challenged the nation to double its exports within five years, and in the coming year, ports and carriers will look increasingly to exports as a primary engine for growth. It makes sense, considering that the world’s fastest-growing markets are located outside of our borders. Demand for U.S. exports of higher-value cargo and finished goods is increasing.
According to the American Association of Port Authorities, U.S. waterborne exports grew 23.9 percent in value and 15.5 percent in volume in 2010, reaching record highs of $455.5 billion and 521.7 million metric tons. Sustaining this kind of growth will require continued investment in transportation and port infrastructure.
Perhaps, too, we should begin to see rational and compensatory ocean rate levels on the export leg. Carriers and shippers need to reconsider the “backhaul” to have a viable carrier and equipment fleet that supports export growth.