The most important change in the year ahead will involve recalibrating and reorienting to the realities of a down cycle of uncertain duration and magnitude. Even ports with well-diversified lines of business are not shielded from a broad economic slowdown. Most everyone will be doing some belt tightening. The sky is not falling, but there are clouds overhead.
That said, it is a very dark cloud that does have a silver lining. Efficiencies identified during lean times can yield lasting future benefits. Those who are able to nimbly adapt to the rapidly changing landscape will stand poised to capitalize on new and emerging opportunities. This requires keeping a finger on the pulse of everything from deployment decisions to environmental regulations to fuel costs and more.
In the course of a few months, for example, we saw how oil prices near $150 a barrel and below $50 can impact transportation-dependent industries. The challenge of fuel costs that I wrote about in this forum last year is now looking like one of managing volatility as opposed to near-term high or low prices.
Despite the weak economy, prudent investment and planning is still essential. It may even be tempting to scale back environmental initiatives in light of the downturn. This would be a mistake. Moving forward, integrating environmental concerns and sustainability in the planning, design and throughout port operations is as important now as ever.
Nobody has all of the answers when the only constant is change. It is challenging to pose solutions when there is uncertainty about the problems themselves. Brace for the tumultuous seas and turbulent skies ahead, but continue to forecast and adapt to stay on course. As the old adage goes, “We cannot direct the wind, but we can adjust the sails.”