My perspective is formulated from over twenty years as a business owner in the maritime industry, encompassing blue water, brown water, and transport engineering. The near future in shipping presents many challenges. The dry bulk index continues to hit new lows with no immediate improvements in sight. Overcapacity and slumping economies continue to wreak havoc on our industry. Barging, in particular inland movements, have offered a bright spot. Development of LNG facilities and other capital projects along the Gulf Coast have kept demand for flat-deck barges robust, I expect it will remain such for the next few years. Conversely the offshore flat-deck market is slow due to depressed oil prices.
I expect there will be a correction to the oil price in 2016, and that the price will stabilize at a level that will create more opportunities for service companies. Mexico will become a key market for oil and gas expansion. It is obligated to increase production to maintain the government’s cash flow requirements, and thanks to the energy reform, 2016 will see the first foreign and national private investment into the Mexican oil industry in almost 80 years.
One of the biggest global changes we will see in the next decades is the transition from fuel burning to renewable energy production. In my opinion, natural gas will serve as a great energy bridge. As the LNG market matures, the ties to other forms of fossil fuel will lessen. The start of this transition is already here and is happening now, and I expect this will continue for years to come as the infrastructure requirements catch-up with the increase in demand.
Predictions are always difficult, my approach is to stay focused on what we do well and to ensure that we are ready to adapt and change; remain nimble. 2016 is going to be a year of changes.