At long last, the presidential election is over, and we are now faced with the question of its impact on international trade and the trade community. My professional experience is approaching four decades, so perhaps my being that long in the tooth is why I feel so comfortable “opining without apology” about how things may shake out in 2017.
Despite the apparent demise of the Trans-Pacific Partnership, I don’t think the Trump administration will abandon existing and future trade agreements. In fact, I think we’ll see at least three new bilateral trade agreements tabled before the end of the year, and am betting that two will involve Britain and Japan. As for the North American Free Trade Agreement, I don’t foresee a wholesale repeal. The administration knows how integral and intertwined NAFTA is to the economy (e.g., the automobile industry). Instead, I believe we’ll see a renegotiated agreement that incentivizes US industry to ultimately reposition capital and assets to the United States.
Finally, I’ll bet no one else in this issue mentions my last two prognostications, but I do feel they could have a large and positive impact on our “industry.” Over the past few administrations, we’ve had to wait a year or more for a Customs commissioner to be selected and approved by Congress. In my opinion, this delay leaves the agency “rudderless” and unfocused — thereby creating uncertainties and a lack of direction. Based on the business driven nature of the new administration and one party control of Congress, I’d be willing to wager a tidy sum that we’ll have a new commissioner selected and approved by the end of March. I also believe that the dreams of many ICE agents will be realized at last — i.e., they’ll finally be brought back under the Customs umbrella. In my view, this would give new meaning to a fair administration and enforcement of the customs laws.