If there was one word I would use to describe the greatest impact on (or challenge to) the customs law sector of the international trade community, it would be “uncertainty.” It’s also probably fair to say that most lawyers don’t like to tell their clients “I don’t know” in response to a question — but recently I find myself in the position of having to respond to clients in that manner. A few cases in point: “Are we going to withdraw from NAFTA?” “Should we look for alternative sourcing options regarding our current (fill in the blank with a country name) suppliers?” One hates to resort to the response starting with “Well, if I were a betting man …”
Customs’ Automated Commerce Environment, free trade agreements, anti-dumping/countervailing duty enforcement, de minimis, cross-border e-commerce, supply chain security — these are all subject to more questions than answers at the moment, at least in my book.
What is interesting to me is that after almost 40 years in the trade community, there’s now a giant spotlight on what previously was pretty arcane stuff by most folks’ standards. When a dentist neighbor of mine recently asked me about the NAFTA rules of origin, and a relative who’s a nurse, asked me if I’d ever heard about “substantial transformation,” I felt a bit like our rather specialized, unique world of customs law has had the curtain lifted and is now center stage.
My friend Marianne Rowden at the American Association of Exporters and Exporters sometimes affectionately calls those of us who work in this sphere “trade nerds.” I don’t know, Marianne, given today’s headlines, I think our community may be on the cusp of celebrity.
Here’s hoping that at this time in 2018 there will be greater certainty, but if I were a betting man ...